GLD - Where to now?

This chart blows me away

Look at the massive divergence in the price of the miners to the gold/oil ratio.  Something has to give here.

GLD-Trading plan

GLD - Trendline bounce

Please read my last four or five GLD posts, very instructive on trendline trading.

GLD - Watching the Trendline

GLD is still OK

GLD new price target

GLD tracing a multiday IHS on the 15 minute

GLD - watching the IHS today.

GLD -146.71 is an important number

If we break back above 146.71, we run to the top of the BB and at least to the middle of the pichfork.

Gold, back in the saddle again

Wow, if you would not have seen the carnage in silver, this sure looks like a normal correction to me.  I am still long, and am expecting this channel to hold at least through the end of the month.  Big delivery month coming.

Nice Channel for GLD

Gold has been in a nice upwards channel, and I expect a test of the upper band this week.  A retrace to the lower boundary will have me buying more gold.  GLD calls and / or DGP.

GLD a IHS tracing out?

As I was scrolling through my charts, I noticed that GLD is coming down to test the 100% line from the July bottom to the October high.  Looking at the cycles since then, it appears that a IHS is tracing out, with the neckline at approx. 138 and the shoulder at the fib line to a buck lower.  Abounce from here or even as low as 133 can be pretty exciting.  A resolution can be in the 155 area.

Needless to say I am still very long my miners, although I wrote calls on silver due to OEX week (good timing huh!).  For my options, I plan on rolling to May next week but am expecting the metals to catch a strong bid within the week.  In eight business days all open March silver contracts get delivery of the metal, and I believe there is not enough to go around.

I am also staying with my plan of long silver, silver miners, and FSLR, and short SPY.  It served me well this morning.  I added, CCJ, PCX, and FCX calls for April, this morning.  Japanese reconstruction is going to be commodity friendly.

This is Big News

From Zero Hedge:

JP Morgan announced today that from now on they will accept physical gold bullion as collateral. This is a sign of gold’s further remonetisation in the global financial and monetary system. It may signal that JP Morgan is having difficulty in securing gold bullion in volume. JP Morgan is the custodian for many of the gold and silver exchange traded funds. They will not accept ETF trust gold as collateral.

In October, the clearing house of global exchange CME Group – CME Clearing – announced it will now accept gold as collateral for trades on the exchange. Gold bullion can be used for margins for CME trades, ranging from crude oil, gold, grains, equity indexes and Treasury bonds.

Given the current monetary, macroeconomic and geopolitical risk gold is an attractive alternative to debt, equities or other paper assets as collateral.

JP Morgans’s move shows how gold bullion’s fungiblity and tangibility as an asset makes it attractive and shows gold’s increasing importance in the financial system.

Interestingly, the CME is storing their collateral gold at JP Morgan Chase Bank in London. The exchange said it hoped to add additional depositories in the future but there has been no announcement of developments in this regard.

Silver prices remain in backwardation, showing that buyers are willing to pay a premium for silver delivered sooner rather than later.


I am already positioned, but suggest others start to add to their silver miner positions, and SLW.

AEM Poking its Head up Again.

It's difficult for me to foresee the ms disappoint on their earnings.  AEM is my favorite large cap miner that is breaking back up through its moving averages.  Low risk entry here.

Don't get GORO'd

Gold Resources breaking out.  I have Feb 25's, going to roll them into March calls.

So it Begins

I have been re-buying my full position in silver and gold miners for the last 6 trading days in anticipation of a very strong March and April.  Today is confirmation for me that this leg of the bull is back.

First, waking up to a Junior gold miner (FRG) getting taken out tells me the in the know people see other assets are cheap enough to buy.  To me, this will put a floor under this market.

Secondly Silver broke through the 50 EMA, and has been leading gold of late, and now gold has broke above 1345, and is ready to break through the next EMA.

My plan is to keep acquiring until I am fully margin ed, over the next two weeks.

Anatomy of a Trade - FCX

Looking for day trades, using the 15 minute chart, I watch the MACD and the 10 and 30 EMA.  For FCX, I was actually looking for a place to short it again as it under the 20 and 50 EMA and the MACD was pointing down, I was looking for a rejection at the 10 EMA, but MACD flat lined, then got stronger, then crossed, so I held off.  This morning the EMA 10 and 30 crossed with a rising MACD so I took the trade and rode it all day.  I am still in it as MACD is still pointing up and the price has not penetrated the MA (30) nor have they crossed.

Longer term this is still a sell until it rises above the 20 again.

Elder Impulse Buy Signals

GLD, UEC, and CCJ hit Elder buy signals today.  gold miners have been sluggish, and this may get them moving again.  I will play them though with gold and silver junior plays (you may peruse my earlier posts on the stocks I like).  Uranium is under no such restraint, I own a good bit of UEC (along with URRE, URZ, DNN, MWSNF, and TVCFF).  I will push a little longer with additional shares or calls.

All Aboard the NAK express

My favorite junior miner.  Buy this on every dip.  They have massive reserves.