Sunday, October 12, 2014

Wow

Well, my thesis for a sell off was a week off, but be that as it may in my view the volatility index is overdone and buying UVXY puts this week should pay off handsomely.  If the market is down on Monday, buy them at the end of the day, and look at the $30-32 area.  Go out to the week four October expiration.  A small investment will pay off well enough, and not be too painful if I am wrong.  Here are some charts that is driving my view.  Enjoy.

www.realtimetradingsignals.com  for my paid site.








Sunday, October 5, 2014

Calm Before the Storm

I have been increasing my focus on trading volatility as it seems to respond very well to my signals.  Last week was no exception.  Had a good UVXY put trade, and XIV position trade.  Going into this week, it appears that my signal indicates further selling of volatility.  My view is the sell off is not done, and with a strong dollar earnings are going to struggle and should see more selling going into the middle of the month.

I will move my stop up on XIV, and trim all week into further strength.  I also am going to post a weekly chart of my Vol trade.  I am looking to turn $50,000 into $500,000 in five years only trading XIV and VXX without margin.  I will post my UVXY put trades but won't count them in the chart.

Subscribers will get the trades real time.  Enjoy the week.

www.realtimetradingsignals.com  for my trade signals.



Sunday, September 28, 2014

VXX Watch

It looks like we have another VXX shorting opportunity ahead of us.  VXX touched the top of its downward sloping channel and fell away.  If it breaks below that trend line we are set up for a nice trade.  However, if we push higher this week, we are setting up for a very nice short trade.

VXX struggles outside of its channel.



Sunday, September 7, 2014

Perspective

Now that the Fed is continuing their wind down of asset purchases, can we expect to see a market cliff dive?  From a mathematical standpoint, the answer is no.  Earnings yields on the S&P is 5.04%, with earnings expected to increase 7.34% over the next 12 months.  Compared with a 10 yield of 2.43%, statistically we can expect another 10% higher in the S&P over the next 12 months.

Debt levels are now over their long term average, but earnings are outpacing interest costs so party on Garth.  Obviously the debt burden combined with an inabilty to service the interest at a higher rate will kill the bull, but not this earnings season.  Perversely, the Fed walking away will force banks to take on more risk, and they look at these models and see that there is some more blood in these corporate rocks to squeeze.

We remain in buy the dip mode, with an expectation that we will see a more sine wave look to the market to give us some nice trading opportunities.

Enjoy the video of my watchlist.

video


If you want the buy signals real time, go to www.realtimetradingsignals.com

Sunday, August 31, 2014

More Of The Same

The only interesting trade of interest is it looks like oil has a trade able move.  But I would not get too excited about it, or other commodities as Draghi may finally get the monetization action in the Euro zone out in the open, and that will further strengthen the dollar.  Besides, there is simply no way Obama is going to let oil prices rise into an election cycle.

The broad markets look like they are going to continue to rise, probably going into mid September, gold, silver, and the miners are uninteresting, and probably a good short if they start rolling down, and my view is volatility will squeeze down until we get closer to the Fed meeting in September.

I tried a video instead of posting charts.  If you like it I'll do more of them.  It is pretty quick and zippy.

Enjoy.  WWW.realtimetradingsignals.com  if you want real time buy and sell signals.

http://www.screencast.com/t/QCeBtlg9hud

Sunday, August 24, 2014

Don't Short Yet

The Yellen news is out of the way, and next week is the week before the world comes back from summer vacation, so unless we get a geo political curve ball there is nothing in the charts that say jump ahead of the market and short it.  In  fact, it still does not even make sense to take anything off the table yet (next week is a different story).

The good deflation meme is still playing out; dollar stronger, bonds stronger, oil weaker, gold weaker, volatility weaker, institutions still buying, or at least holding, market has no choice but to stay fully invested.

I am still keeping it simple and shorting VXX through put spreads.  I can envision a sub 20 UVXY before this market rolls over.  For those in XIV, stay fully invested until 42.39 is breached (paid subscribers get a daily update on the stop).

For those who want to short GLD, a break below 122.75, buy the Sept 120-118 put spread.

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Please click to enlarge the charts, and go to www.realtimetradingsignals.com to subscribe to my daily trade signals)










Sunday, August 3, 2014

Focus

Well, per my post last week we blew right through the crossroads, and Thursday/Friday big range days reminds me too much like 2008 all over again.  As volatility picks up, you must swing on shorter and shorter time frames,  and the mistake I made then as a leveraged trader is not getting smaller, faster, and more conservative, immediately.  Therefore I am going to get very focused, and focused on volatility.

Money is money, and I am just getting pure.  No need to look at a hundred stocks when everything is tied to volatility.  I made my most money trading XIV and UVXY puts during these elevated levels in 2011 as intraday moves can give you a weeks worth of profits.  There are a couple of trade-able edges in this environment, I have shared in the past, and will again.

Regarding gold, et al.  I am staying away as I think we are deflating, and with the Fed ending QE, I don't see a catalyst, unless gold responds positively to a hedge unwind.

On to the VIX.  I am looking for an overbought retracement (we may touch 17.80 area first), then a move higher to the 21 area.  That will give us a very nice UVXY put trade.  So for me, I have a VXX bull debit diagonal trade on Aug 29, Aug week2 29.50 (I have been opening, closing, and moving the sold leg every week) and will close he sold if we hit new highs, or a new buy signal on my expected dip.  I also bought some UVXY Aug, 30 strike puts, and will follow the signal above.  I will also point out XIV trades intraday, with tight stops.

We are back in a traders market, don't get sea sick.

www.realtimetradingsignals.com is my paid site.