Sunday, August 24, 2014

Don't Short Yet

The Yellen news is out of the way, and next week is the week before the world comes back from summer vacation, so unless we get a geo political curve ball there is nothing in the charts that say jump ahead of the market and short it.  In  fact, it still does not even make sense to take anything off the table yet (next week is a different story).

The good deflation meme is still playing out; dollar stronger, bonds stronger, oil weaker, gold weaker, volatility weaker, institutions still buying, or at least holding, market has no choice but to stay fully invested.

I am still keeping it simple and shorting VXX through put spreads.  I can envision a sub 20 UVXY before this market rolls over.  For those in XIV, stay fully invested until 42.39 is breached (paid subscribers get a daily update on the stop).

For those who want to short GLD, a break below 122.75, buy the Sept 120-118 put spread.

Regarding my day job, we are batting a 1000 on our First Trust Deeds over the past 40 months (200 million funded, 10.9% return, 9 months average loan duration, zero investor losses(you can request a detailed performance audit on all of our investments)), and we have some nice new developments starting with our builders.  If you are looking for some nice yields (10-13% Annualized), professional, corporate borrowers, short duration (6-18 months), and a well collateralized, (60-70% loan to value range), and you are first lien title holder,  go to my landing page, and learn more.
http://ignitefunding.com/landing-page-kudla-con/

Please click to enlarge the charts, and go to www.realtimetradingsignals.com to subscribe to my daily trade signals)










Sunday, August 3, 2014

Focus

Well, per my post last week we blew right through the crossroads, and Thursday/Friday big range days reminds me too much like 2008 all over again.  As volatility picks up, you must swing on shorter and shorter time frames,  and the mistake I made then as a leveraged trader is not getting smaller, faster, and more conservative, immediately.  Therefore I am going to get very focused, and focused on volatility.

Money is money, and I am just getting pure.  No need to look at a hundred stocks when everything is tied to volatility.  I made my most money trading XIV and UVXY puts during these elevated levels in 2011 as intraday moves can give you a weeks worth of profits.  There are a couple of trade-able edges in this environment, I have shared in the past, and will again.

Regarding gold, et al.  I am staying away as I think we are deflating, and with the Fed ending QE, I don't see a catalyst, unless gold responds positively to a hedge unwind.

On to the VIX.  I am looking for an overbought retracement (we may touch 17.80 area first), then a move higher to the 21 area.  That will give us a very nice UVXY put trade.  So for me, I have a VXX bull debit diagonal trade on Aug 29, Aug week2 29.50 (I have been opening, closing, and moving the sold leg every week) and will close he sold if we hit new highs, or a new buy signal on my expected dip.  I also bought some UVXY Aug, 30 strike puts, and will follow the signal above.  I will also point out XIV trades intraday, with tight stops.

We are back in a traders market, don't get sea sick.

www.realtimetradingsignals.com is my paid site.





Sunday, July 27, 2014

Crossroads

These last two weeks feels like a change in trend is coming.  My signals are firing and failing, and I must step down in time frames to squeeze out profits.  From a macro perspective it seems to make sense, the heroin from the FED is slowly drying up, and the Fed to SPY ratio says that SPY already hit the theoretical price that the final Fed Balance sheet will reach.

Volatility has refused to go down, and the dollar is up, which informs me that big money is getting defensive and this takes another funding source away from the index algos.

Small caps and commodities are struggling, and gold, silver, and miners are trying to reestablish themselves but no big moves so far.

If the dollar breaks out, it looks like TLT, FXI, and EWJ all look like macro buys, and I will call out calls on dips.  I will also focus on TNA puts.  The metals and miners are all in the handle stage of cups, and are moving up, so will be buying dips with calls.

For volatility, I am going to be a bit of Sybill.  I am going to play with spreads on both, and manage the sold legs to profit both ways.

So those that subscribe, I will be very focused. FXI, EWJ, VXX, UVXY, TNA, GLD, SLW, and GDX. We will trade these a little faster than normal as the market, in my view will try to shake out positions more frequently.  Monday before the open, I will tweet out my current positions, and the trades expected to signal that day.

www.realtimetradingsignals.com  is my paid site.

Click to enlarge











Sunday, July 13, 2014

Biotech Swings

Last week I featured metals and miners, and those trades worked out well.  I exited my NUGT, and rolled up my GLD and SLW calls.  Miners look set to take a breather here.

I also have been interested and invested in some Biotech plays, mostly situational, but that caused me to run some scans in this space.  I am glad I did.  There are a number of good buy set ups, and I share them with you below.  There are some doubles in here. Not listed, but my favorite; MNKD

Enjoy.  Please click to enlarge, and go to www.realtimetradingsignals.com to subscribe.








Sunday, July 6, 2014

Be a Lover, Not a Fighter

Right now we are all on top watch, but even though the taper is in full swing, and POMO is only going to be three days a week in July, the charts sure don’t look like a top to me. Both SPY and QQQ’s went back in buy mode for me this week, so I don’t feel like being a hero trying to catch a reversal, but looking to follow what the market is starting to recognize, and buy; basic materials.
I have been long gold and Silver Wheaton, and will remain so, and I posted a buy signal on NUGT on Thursday, and now I want to share some stocks that have high short interest (above 10), and are a buy now or hit my buy screen on Thursday and Friday. It is a good mix, and you will find some gems in here. Good trading.
Please click on Charts to enlarge.
www.realtimetradingsignals.com to subscribe to more great signals


2014-07-05_0729

2014-07-05_0730

2014-07-05_0731

2014-07-05_0731_001

2014-07-05_0731_002

2014-07-05_0732

2014-07-05_0733

2014-07-05_0733_001

2014-07-05_0734

2014-07-05_0734_001

2014-07-05_0735
2014-07-05_0736

Sunday, June 22, 2014

Long Gold, Short Natural Gas

Nothing pithy to share this week.  The charts tell me to stay long GLD and SLW, and to stay short UNG.  I am also dabbling in some other trades, but those are my top three.  I am managing my risk in these by rolling up and down my strikes thus taking profits along the way, yet staying in the game, until my sell signal hits. The hardest thing for a trader is to get blown out of a trade that you made profit on and watch it continue in the direction of your trade.  This just happened to me with TNA last week as I just set a stop instead of just reducing size or rolling it.  Selling is still my hardest thing to do.  Enjoy the charts and click on them for larger size.  Also, if you wish to subscribe www.realtimetradingsignals.com

The first graph are basic material stocks that hit my buy screen late Friday.  There are a few gems in there.





Sunday, June 15, 2014

Rocks, Paper, Scissors

The shift to hard assets continues.  The miners still look great, gold is awakening, coals is waking up, and so is Uranium.  even a derivative of hard assets, alt energy is getting bid.  I like it, if what I believe is taking place, we are going to see some fantastic moves higher, just to get these stocks bid back to their early spring sell off.   I just have some charts below.  I had to stop, there are probably 50 more like these.  Enjoy the week, the day if you are a father.

Please click to enlarge the charts, and go to www.realtimetradingsignals.com if you wish to subscribe and real time picks during the week.