Sunday, July 13, 2014

Biotech Swings

Last week I featured metals and miners, and those trades worked out well.  I exited my NUGT, and rolled up my GLD and SLW calls.  Miners look set to take a breather here.

I also have been interested and invested in some Biotech plays, mostly situational, but that caused me to run some scans in this space.  I am glad I did.  There are a number of good buy set ups, and I share them with you below.  There are some doubles in here. Not listed, but my favorite; MNKD

Enjoy.  Please click to enlarge, and go to to subscribe.

Sunday, July 6, 2014

Be a Lover, Not a Fighter

Right now we are all on top watch, but even though the taper is in full swing, and POMO is only going to be three days a week in July, the charts sure don’t look like a top to me. Both SPY and QQQ’s went back in buy mode for me this week, so I don’t feel like being a hero trying to catch a reversal, but looking to follow what the market is starting to recognize, and buy; basic materials.
I have been long gold and Silver Wheaton, and will remain so, and I posted a buy signal on NUGT on Thursday, and now I want to share some stocks that have high short interest (above 10), and are a buy now or hit my buy screen on Thursday and Friday. It is a good mix, and you will find some gems in here. Good trading.
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Sunday, June 22, 2014

Long Gold, Short Natural Gas

Nothing pithy to share this week.  The charts tell me to stay long GLD and SLW, and to stay short UNG.  I am also dabbling in some other trades, but those are my top three.  I am managing my risk in these by rolling up and down my strikes thus taking profits along the way, yet staying in the game, until my sell signal hits. The hardest thing for a trader is to get blown out of a trade that you made profit on and watch it continue in the direction of your trade.  This just happened to me with TNA last week as I just set a stop instead of just reducing size or rolling it.  Selling is still my hardest thing to do.  Enjoy the charts and click on them for larger size.  Also, if you wish to subscribe

The first graph are basic material stocks that hit my buy screen late Friday.  There are a few gems in there.

Sunday, June 15, 2014

Rocks, Paper, Scissors

The shift to hard assets continues.  The miners still look great, gold is awakening, coals is waking up, and so is Uranium.  even a derivative of hard assets, alt energy is getting bid.  I like it, if what I believe is taking place, we are going to see some fantastic moves higher, just to get these stocks bid back to their early spring sell off.   I just have some charts below.  I had to stop, there are probably 50 more like these.  Enjoy the week, the day if you are a father.

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Sunday, June 8, 2014

Gold, Silver, Ags, and Miners

The miners still look great, and the fact that this market melt up did not sell them off could finally mean the great rotation in commodities is back.  I created a bunch of charts below that have high short interest, and good set ups on their charts.  There are some doubles here, and definitely with some option leverage.

I am personally speculating long with $SLW, $USU, $DUST puts, and a couple high volatility tech stocks, $TAN and $DDD.

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Sunday, June 1, 2014

Trade-able reversal on the Miners

On Friday I started getting buy signals on the miners.  I personally shorted DUST through puts, and am watching to see if gold and silver give me the follow through on their late day buy signal.  I trade against a four hour chart so I don't know if it is anymore than a trade, but I'll take it.

I am short Natural Gas and oil through GASL puts and oil futures, and am long volatility because it is ridiculously low, and if I am wrong small loss, but if we wake up some morning or from a weekend and the big money left the party I am in great shape.  I will keep rolling and creating diagonal and calendar spreads until vol shows an uptrend, then go direction-ally long.

enjoy the charts, and I put up my watch-list as there are too many miners that hit my screen to post them all. Click to enlarge, and go to to subscribe to my real time trade signals.

Sunday, May 25, 2014

Volatility Review

I spent a great deal of time reviewing the historical volatility action and the relationship with the indexes. There is an obvious inverse relationship, but are there any signals that tell me to look for reversals.  Looking at the COT data, and the intensity of the leveraged money positions, I think I have found something trade-able.

Whenever the VIX is oversold and the percentage of long dealers to leveraged short Money Managers hits 35% or lower the VIX and the stock market both reverse within two weeks.  In addition, this time the amount of leveraged shorts is at the highest in open contracts this year.

One other thing I noticed is that the number of leveraged contracts in 2013 far exceeded the average so far this year.  I must assume that as the FED eased off credit printing, the market players used this funding mechanism less, and the stock market flat-lined.

I am and remain long volatility, and short the market until this ratio moves back into the 50% or greater range.

bonus chart, CSX looks ready to move higher again.

Enjoy the charts, and click to enlarge.