Sunday, October 28, 2012

The week ahead

Gold, silver, miners, oil, SPY and natural gas are still finding bottoms, but unless the Hurricane causes some low volume games, and I think they are are all in, except for oil.  The action in AAPL and AMZN is telling for me, and the overnight SPY action from Thursday to Friday.  Anyway more thoughts embedded in my charts.

Sunday, October 21, 2012

The week ahead-Still in the channel

Please read my post from last week, it is playing out perfectly.  We are still in the channel on SPY, and we started our sharp move down.  I can see that continue until the FED meeting but expect a reversal at any moment.  DO NOT PRESS SHORTS HERE.

Gold and silver are still being guided by the robots to the next fib levels down within a tight channel. Buy the breakout of the channel.  The miners look ready to rumble, and that is an area I will invest in next week.  Our good friend BOIL is doing its thing and it looks like the next move higher is beginning.  Oil is still an area that is confusing my signals and I am still staying away.  Enjoy the charts.

Sunday, October 14, 2012

The week ahead, Hold 'em or Fold 'em

Well we hit the inflection on SPY, on Friday, and now the market has a decision to make.  My view looking at my signals are we test the validity of the rising channel with a sharp move lower, that is quickly reversed.  Then we have two paths, follow the original channel, or continue in the consolidation channel.  We will need to wait and see after next week, but with Ben pumping, a sustained fall in price seems unlikely yet.

The metals and miners are still moving down to their next levels of support, then we will see where they go.  Energy; oil is baffling me and my signals, and so for the most part staying away.  Natural Gas on the other hand has been my big profit maker over the past month.  Prices are reverting back to more sustainable levels of supply and demand, and I can see BOIL in the seventies and GASL in the high thirties fairly soon.

I think volatility remains elevated through the elections, and this market will punish anyone leaning too hard in one direction.  I am the least invested in years.  I am also travelling next week with limited trading windows.

Here are my charts and additional thoughts.

Saturday, October 6, 2012

The Week Ahead - Inflection points

I am a voracious reader, and love to explore all viewpoints, even though I hold certain convictions already.  This allows me to test my assumptions and their validity.  My view is we have a struggle over the next three weeks, ultimately moving higher, but with alot more volatility.  I think Friday gave us a test of that.

Reading what the cycle guys, the Gann guys, and the fractal guys (guys is a neutral term, I am from Philly, after all) are saying, is to expect a pivot of some sort this week.  The problem is everyone is pointing in different directions or saying it will be big, but not sure which way.

I think caution is warranted, some swanlings are hatching; California running out of gasoline, Obama totally checked out of the debates, Iran going into hyperinflation, Spain et al running out of cash, pretty crappy earnings reports coming out, strikes popping up everywhere, food inflation crushing the 3rd world, Foxconn losing control of their factory, fiscal cliffs, and higher taxes for 2013.  Now is that a wall of worry to surmount, or a tsunami coming our way? Or a Ghostbuster movie trailer.

I have gone from trading the daily, to the 60 minute, and now I am writing credit spreads and day trading on the 10 minute. I will be very careful owning any equities for now, and I was shorting volatility, but that can be fatal here soon and I stopped.  I am keeping UVXY on my watch list as a canary in the coal mine, also AAPL (which is the market).

On the bright side, this week offered great trading again. I expect the entire run up to the election to be closer to Friday's action.  Stay engaged.  Follow me on Twitter (select upper right of this page), I have a great trade and a way to play what I think is going to happen.

Here are my favorite charts, and my thoughts embedded.  Enjoy.