Sunday, September 30, 2012

The week ahead, calm before the storm?

First weeks of the month and quarters tend to be positive, and so far bad news is not dropping this market, so I must conclude that this week will be typical.  However, my feelings are earnings season will disappoint, and October will be a tough month to be long.  Personally, I am out of most equities, and my position size is small.  I am mostly trading option spreads, both debits and credits, and will go flat fast, if I see vol jump.

I own Armageddon EDC puts, and will trade UVXY from the short side, if I get market sell signals,but that is pretty much it.

Below are my charts, and performance on my signals has me over 80% Y-T-D, and my options service had the biggest up week since I started posting my trades.  If interested in seeing my performance spreadsheet, just comment below, and will be happy to send to you.  Have a great week.

Sunday, September 23, 2012

The week ahead

I am going to let the charts talk this week.  Look at my last few post and you can see my thought processes.  Also sorry about the GDX caption, wireless keyboard, and I saved the chart before I noticed.  you'll get the drift though.  Enjoy.

Sunday, September 16, 2012

The Week Ahead

Well if you looked at my post last week, every target on my charts were hit or exceeded. Wow! What I did not expect was the follow through.  I was convinced we'd get some profit taking.  My trade signals stocks had another great week, but I was more lightly invested than my signals, so I had an OK week, but quickly added back to my miner positions.

What I am trying to get my arms around is how buying MBS's in a already low interest rate environment is going to add any more juice.  I mean people who can refinance probably already have, right?

Also, how does adding energy and food input cost into a company's cost of goods sold into a no pricing power environment boost already sky high margins?

This is all about the banks and government spending.  The banks need their assets rising in value prior to Basel III and the Federal Government needs Capital Gains revenue, as income revenue is dead.  They are channeling their inner Clinton.

This will be like watching a Tron movie to see who cuts off who first; animal spirits rising like a Phoenix or the the collapse of American's buying power. But we will need to wait to watch that train to crash, as I remember in 2007 watching in amazement, prices for homes going past everything I thought possible, and I live in lulu land Southern California.  I guess it is going to work until it doesn't (the great asset re-puff).

Before I show some charts, I wanted to show you a couple of charts from a friend of mine. who has a cycles blog called Cycle Trading  He gave me permission to post these charts, as it informs our investing decisions.

Bottom-line is after a pause or small reset his view is we roll over hard in the dollar, and with that risk assets, especially hard assets will fly.  This blogger has been amazingly prescient and I encourage you to book mark his page and check back often.  He knows his stuff.

Now some charts, enjoy.

Sunday, September 9, 2012

Bernanke Uber Alles

I had the best week of the year for me, percentage wise, yet left so much on the table running scared.  This week will be just as much of a nail biter.  Wednesday, the German court rules.  At first I thought that this clearly violates their constitution, but recent rulings from our courts, and the total disregard for the rule of law in other matters relating to the bankers, has me thinking all systems go.  On Thursday Ben speaks, with the recent run up in the market, should be a sell the news event, but as my trading partner pointed out to me, they may already be doing QE3, and just decided to not tell us.

For me, risk management demands I continue to move up stops and scale down my size, and on Tuesday I will initiate some hedging.

For those who subscribe to me, I am going to add BOIL, which is a leveraged Natural Gas ETF to my focus list.  Nat Gas has bottomed, and I want to buy the dips and ride the moves with some leverage.  Below are some charts and my portfolio and performance.

Sunday, September 2, 2012

The Short Week Ahead.

Thank you Ben! The reversal on Friday gave me a positive week.  I was slowly getting chopped up by my sell stops and deflating call options and then boom went gold, silver and the miners.  Of course most everything moved to fib lines and double tops to make next week a bit trickier for follow through.  But we can assume the market is now on hold again until Ben and Draghi pontificate this week and next.  If no overt QE, this market is toast until the election.  If so, gold goes to last years highs with the miners and silver along for the ride.  Below are some charts.