Saturday, November 24, 2012


Well, we got the up move I was expecting, but not the intensity.  I expected this move would take two weeks (142 on SPY).  I guess robots are target focused and not swayed by fear or greed.  This leaves us with some thinking to do.  The easy money is made and we are in a fib chop zone.

According to the three peaks crowd, target and timing have hit for the great plunge to 1100 over the next six  weeks.  It have been extremely reliable for the past 18 months, and we must give it it's due.

The cycle guys see right translated moves and now a press to make new highs over the the next 20 trading days.

I'll follow my signals, but my gut says we overshoot the three peaks scenario, and when it is clear no deal before year end on taxes, a mad rush for the door, to 125 area.  This will take down the miners I follow, as well as energy.  Gold and silver will largely ignore this move in my opinion, and a the very least be neutral, just like the last sell off.

Now some charts

Sunday, November 18, 2012

The week ahead, up then over

Wow, the selling in the miners was breathtaking.  GDX down 15% in a week.  I made a cardinal sin in trading, I tried to front run a move higher based on my views vs my signals, and paid the price in my SIL, SLW, and NUGT trades.

Miners are extreme liquidity on, and that signals for me, defense is back in vogue.  I am now in the camp of up this week, maybe next, then over.  The potential taxes the top 100% of the population will pay next year will cause a serious drag in the economy.  No one will escape.  Remember we get the government we want. Smart money looks to be bailing, and earnings outlooks are not helping.

Personally, I will limit my play to VXX and XIV through year end, with some stabs at BOIL, GLD, and SLV.  Overnight news reversals will keep me cautious until we reprice.

My current signal have gold and silver neutral, sell (with a bounce) on  miners, bounce on SPY, XIV, and a buy on BOIL.

Here are some charts.

Sunday, November 4, 2012

The week ahead-Whipsaw

Nothing is easy.  After getting buy signals on metal and miners, the Friday panic reversal was disheartening.  The problem for me is the cause is uncertain for me.  Is it due to a short week that gave false early signals, the election, both, or a start of a new trend down.

My guess is Friday was a overreaction, and we settle down until Tuesday close.  Then all bets are off.  I can see selloffs in both scenarios of Presidential victors.  Obama win means taxes are coming and get out now, Romney, austerity is coming, so get out now.

Then Thursday, the ECB meets, and they may whisper sweet nothings to the market, the euro rises, so goes the risk markets.

I got bounced out of most positions on Friday at the open, and will wait on new buy signals.  The exception is my two silver miners AG, and SSRI held up well and did not get stopped out, interesting.

My charts are below.