Sunday, October 30, 2011

The Four horseman of High Beta

I mostly trade the hard asset stocks, but I like to trade these high beta stocks.  I used to be an idiot and try to play these both long and short, but the market told me I only make money when buying my long set ups.


Sunday, October 23, 2011

FCX - A stock to watch

On Thursday, FCX hit on my short term buy signal, and had two confirmation signals hit as well (My daily signal still shows distribution but close to a confirmed buy signal, as well).  This weekend Barrons wrote a positive article on the company that shows a severe discount to replacement values.  Ironically, this is true for almost all the miners right now. When the market reacts to this price/value mismatch in the miners is a mystery to me, but I am anxious to play it again on the long side.

FCX is now on my daily watchlist to trade against my short term signals.  I am passing on this signal for now, and will await the next buy set up and allow some of the euro drama to play out this week.

Personally, I think we either get a sell the news event, or worse, a sell off due to a recognition of the intractable nature of the debt situation.

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

The Dollar Is Set to Rise

Sorry for not posting in a while, my real job has kept me busy.  The dollar has made a swing low for I believe the next 6 to 10 weeks, and with that we should see pressure in the oil, commodities and emerging markets.  This is coinciding with the end of the insanity of the Europe hope and dream campaign.

I took on three trades today, EDZ at $23, DTO at $57.50, and FAZ at $50.  I closed FAZ for a quick profit and trimmed DTO a bit, but am ready to add to all three with a break in trend on the dollar.  It was gratifying to see Tim ( mention EDZ today, as it is my favorite risk off trade.

If you value cycle theory as I do, we can expect a larger than normal move for the dollar.  This will crush gold and silver, as well and bring us to some compelling buys in both towards year end.  Here are some charts as reference.