Sunday, July 29, 2012

The Ben and Draghi show

I do not have too many charts to post this week, as I think everything will be correlated with the news flow.  SPY and GLD are at the tops of their trading channels and the miners are starting to catch a bid.    I also think energy is going to make the first burst though if Ben green lights more easing, as there is less of a concerted effort to suppress prices than the metals and miners.

I am also hoping to get this news out of the way, to see where the bond flows start heading, commodities and equities or equities.  Any concerted bond guaranteeing by the ECB will cause a big reversal in the dollar and Treasuries, but how much is already priced into equities.  We are at max earnings, peak margins, and flat income growth, with huge tax increases heading our way.  Gold and silver on the other hand love falling Treasury prices.

I am playing conservatively, with ratio call options and in only a few equities.  Had a good trading week, but only 30% invested and will increase that only slightly.

Keep CDE and SWC in your gunsights as they have the most leverage to higher metal prices, and GORO and ACZ as a short covering trades. AG, SSRI, REXX, XCO and KOG round me out.

I chose not to trade the Tech stocks this week, even though AMAT, AMZN, and QCOM hit my buy signals.  I feared being whipped out, so I will wait for the next signals to get in.

Saturday, July 21, 2012

My view for the week ahead

I hope everyone is enjoying the weekend.  It is beautiful here in SoCal and I will be a beach rat this weekend.  Last week my trades worked out just fine with two frustrating stop outs at break even that eventually climbed right back up,and one beautiful day trade before earnings (AMZN, DO, and QCOM respectively). My other trades are still active or were weekly spreads that expired.

Energy has been a beast, and we may get some rest next week ( I wonder what it is sniffing out; war or QE?)  The currency metals are simply not wanting to go down anymore, but I am still mostly writing spreads and day trading GLD with weekly calls and puts.

I am also still short FAS and SPY, although I took off half of SPY on Friday's close.  FAS broke its bear flag channel, and I am expecting FAS to be in the 60's soon enough.  I also am going to short PNRA and CMG on all rips when stochs go OB.  Higher energy, higher food, higher taxes, and zero wage growth is a recipe for disaster for these companies.  Grocery stores are dying and people need that stuff, wait until these restaurants try to pass these higher costs along.  Below is my current active trades, and Y_T_D results, and some charts to enjoy.

Saturday, July 14, 2012

My view of the week ahead.

Interesting reversal starting on Thursday in the markets and the commodity space. Now we need to see if there is any follow through.  I am still cautious but have taken trades in BOOM, DO, AG, AMZN, and SSRI.  All are positive. So far 146 trades this year for 56% annualized.

Below are my charts and some thoughts regarding them.  Enjoy.

Sunday, July 8, 2012

Earnings season begins

Heading out camping for a few days in Sequoia.  If you have not visited this place, please put it on your list.  Almost all of the stocks I follow are giving me mixed signals, as they have been for the past three weeks.  Events are moving the market as the macro picture is deflation with bouts of intervention.

This earnings season cannot be viewed or spun positively.  Our earnings momentum has been from a weak dollar and improved outlook has been from strong winter/spring employment growth projections.  Those good guys are gone.  Also, the wealthy are beginning to eye the tremendous tax burden coming their way from Obamacare and expiring tax credits.  This will reduce risk on further, and will also reduce the velocity of money as the rich simply will hunker down.

So bottom line for me, is I will continue to sell options and wait for buy signals on support levels to grab two and three day moves. My charts below show us in the middle of ranges, so risk / reward on new purchases are not there.

Wednesday, July 4, 2012

Happy 4th of July

Sorry, I was camping last weekend and did not get a post out.  I am camping next week for a few days, but will sneak one out on Saturday.  Now, I'll let the charts do the talking.  Enjoy.

At the bottom are my current real time tweeted recommendations and stops.  Also note my performance for the year, on my trades.  Not too shabby, considering I focus on commodity stocks primarily.  My signals work.