Sunday, July 29, 2012

The Ben and Draghi show

I do not have too many charts to post this week, as I think everything will be correlated with the news flow.  SPY and GLD are at the tops of their trading channels and the miners are starting to catch a bid.    I also think energy is going to make the first burst though if Ben green lights more easing, as there is less of a concerted effort to suppress prices than the metals and miners.

I am also hoping to get this news out of the way, to see where the bond flows start heading, commodities and equities or equities.  Any concerted bond guaranteeing by the ECB will cause a big reversal in the dollar and Treasuries, but how much is already priced into equities.  We are at max earnings, peak margins, and flat income growth, with huge tax increases heading our way.  Gold and silver on the other hand love falling Treasury prices.

I am playing conservatively, with ratio call options and in only a few equities.  Had a good trading week, but only 30% invested and will increase that only slightly.

Keep CDE and SWC in your gunsights as they have the most leverage to higher metal prices, and GORO and ACZ as a short covering trades. AG, SSRI, REXX, XCO and KOG round me out.

I chose not to trade the Tech stocks this week, even though AMAT, AMZN, and QCOM hit my buy signals.  I feared being whipped out, so I will wait for the next signals to get in.

1 comment:

  1. Thanks Bob. So many big news events this week. Commodities and stocks will find ample "excuses" to do anything they want.

    Given the recent strength in stocks, I really doubt Bernanke gives the markets any crumbs, other than perhaps promising to keep rates low an extra year (til 2015).