Sunday, November 18, 2012

The week ahead, up then over

Wow, the selling in the miners was breathtaking.  GDX down 15% in a week.  I made a cardinal sin in trading, I tried to front run a move higher based on my views vs my signals, and paid the price in my SIL, SLW, and NUGT trades.

Miners are extreme liquidity on, and that signals for me, defense is back in vogue.  I am now in the camp of up this week, maybe next, then over.  The potential taxes the top 100% of the population will pay next year will cause a serious drag in the economy.  No one will escape.  Remember we get the government we want. Smart money looks to be bailing, and earnings outlooks are not helping.

Personally, I will limit my play to VXX and XIV through year end, with some stabs at BOIL, GLD, and SLV.  Overnight news reversals will keep me cautious until we reprice.

My current signal have gold and silver neutral, sell (with a bounce) on  miners, bounce on SPY, XIV, and a buy on BOIL.

Here are some charts.


  1. When you have something to say, post it. If you actively post in the comments, I'll drop by to read 'em.

    You're a pretty smart cookie. I don't swing like you do, and I'm much less comfortable with huge margin as I like my money and my risk is very low, imo. I've been posting at Hammy's website as he's the best short term trader I've seen, but they run hot and cold, and he went cold and I think his feathers are singed. He's still way smart.

    I posted the low in gold before it occurred and turned my two young men I'm helping along out and then back in at the low in gold and 3 day of the low in the S&P. I want to make them rich and richer, as the case happens to be.

    As the dollar will crash, which you somewhat surprisedly posted at Poly's, I'm back to take a look. I'm just not going to run around the way you do for your money. Like Soros, it's more comfy for me to amble down and do the herd and then take a nap while the choppy waters which you term whipsaw, which I think is judgmental, next time occur yet again.

    Thx for posting