Saturday, November 24, 2012


Well, we got the up move I was expecting, but not the intensity.  I expected this move would take two weeks (142 on SPY).  I guess robots are target focused and not swayed by fear or greed.  This leaves us with some thinking to do.  The easy money is made and we are in a fib chop zone.

According to the three peaks crowd, target and timing have hit for the great plunge to 1100 over the next six  weeks.  It have been extremely reliable for the past 18 months, and we must give it it's due.

The cycle guys see right translated moves and now a press to make new highs over the the next 20 trading days.

I'll follow my signals, but my gut says we overshoot the three peaks scenario, and when it is clear no deal before year end on taxes, a mad rush for the door, to 125 area.  This will take down the miners I follow, as well as energy.  Gold and silver will largely ignore this move in my opinion, and a the very least be neutral, just like the last sell off.

Now some charts


  1. After you take your positions, defensively, do you place hard stops, and stick with those, hell or high water?

    As if it matters, I agree with you and the cycles boys who expect a quick run up and then a tank in gold and silver. I can't see anything myself in the S&P, so that money can't belong to my wards. They're long within 3 days of the lowest low in gold, because they're them and all I can do is say, "here". Here was 1685-90 in gold, 100 points off the high.

    They're not hedged, though, as I can't get them to place defensive stops.

    They'll be out shortly for a quick skim of the market, if lucky, equivalent to 75 - 100 points in the gold market, and wherever the S&P panic entry gets us.

    The problem I see is a gap opening to the upside on Monday which spells as an average just a typical 2-5 trading day rise before all those chasing learn the sting of the retracement lash.

    That retracement is so obvious, it's embarrassing to see it resolve that way, but that's I guess how the major players can play the psychology of the weak handed and emotional gamblers.

    And after the retracement, a second clock cleaning with a month, the pattern's not clear... my sense is there's work to do to get the recent longs who just wouldn't release on this last drop "out" of the market, and that takes time, time and more time.

    So, I'm up for guessing only up through this fast retracement back to the opening gap (and unfilled), the day over day gap, on Monday.

    I'm pretty sure there was a gap in this area in the recent past, also, and to me that means that gap's gonna get marched all over.

    Thx for the succinct welcoming words. ;-)

    1. Based on market movement today, and in the night session, gold will spring upwards with a mad tail of wannabee's chasing it for the next 2 days, chase and consolidate, or edge up and chase up, and then it will retrace downward quickly. Exit on the close of the chase day, or for the more aggressive, short the end of the chase day... whenever it's obvious that the short squeeze has is in motion. Exit 1800-1780 range, for a re-entry 50 points below the high, or back to 17485-0, where we are today. This is a gap fulfillment from a prior week, about 3-4 weeks ago, day over day in the ny pit.