Sunday, October 14, 2012

The week ahead, Hold 'em or Fold 'em

Well we hit the inflection on SPY, on Friday, and now the market has a decision to make.  My view looking at my signals are we test the validity of the rising channel with a sharp move lower, that is quickly reversed.  Then we have two paths, follow the original channel, or continue in the consolidation channel.  We will need to wait and see after next week, but with Ben pumping, a sustained fall in price seems unlikely yet.

The metals and miners are still moving down to their next levels of support, then we will see where they go.  Energy; oil is baffling me and my signals, and so for the most part staying away.  Natural Gas on the other hand has been my big profit maker over the past month.  Prices are reverting back to more sustainable levels of supply and demand, and I can see BOIL in the seventies and GASL in the high thirties fairly soon.

I think volatility remains elevated through the elections, and this market will punish anyone leaning too hard in one direction.  I am the least invested in years.  I am also travelling next week with limited trading windows.

Here are my charts and additional thoughts.

1 comment:

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