The only interesting trade of interest is it looks like oil has a trade able move. But I would not get too excited about it, or other commodities as Draghi may finally get the monetization action in the Euro zone out in the open, and that will further strengthen the dollar. Besides, there is simply no way Obama is going to let oil prices rise into an election cycle.
The broad markets look like they are going to continue to rise, probably going into mid September, gold, silver, and the miners are uninteresting, and probably a good short if they start rolling down, and my view is volatility will squeeze down until we get closer to the Fed meeting in September.
I tried a video instead of posting charts. If you like it I'll do more of them. It is pretty quick and zippy.
Enjoy. WWW.realtimetradingsignals.com if you want real time buy and sell signals.
http://www.screencast.com/t/QCeBtlg9hud
Stock Market Commentary by full-time trader and best selling author Bob Kudla AKA "BobLovesHawaii"
Sunday, August 31, 2014
Sunday, August 24, 2014
Don't Short Yet
The Yellen news is out of the way, and next week is the week before the world comes back from summer vacation, so unless we get a geo political curve ball there is nothing in the charts that say jump ahead of the market and short it. In fact, it still does not even make sense to take anything off the table yet (next week is a different story).
The good deflation meme is still playing out; dollar stronger, bonds stronger, oil weaker, gold weaker, volatility weaker, institutions still buying, or at least holding, market has no choice but to stay fully invested.
I am still keeping it simple and shorting VXX through put spreads. I can envision a sub 20 UVXY before this market rolls over. For those in XIV, stay fully invested until 42.39 is breached (paid subscribers get a daily update on the stop).
For those who want to short GLD, a break below 122.75, buy the Sept 120-118 put spread.
Regarding my day job, we are batting a 1000 on our First Trust Deeds over the past 40 months (200 million funded, 10.9% return, 9 months average loan duration, zero investor losses(you can request a detailed performance audit on all of our investments)), and we have some nice new developments starting with our builders. If you are looking for some nice yields (10-13% Annualized), professional, corporate borrowers, short duration (6-18 months), and a well collateralized, (60-70% loan to value range), and you are first lien title holder, go to my landing page, and learn more.
http://ignitefunding.com/landing-page-kudla-con/
Please click to enlarge the charts, and go to www.realtimetradingsignals.com to subscribe to my daily trade signals)
The good deflation meme is still playing out; dollar stronger, bonds stronger, oil weaker, gold weaker, volatility weaker, institutions still buying, or at least holding, market has no choice but to stay fully invested.
I am still keeping it simple and shorting VXX through put spreads. I can envision a sub 20 UVXY before this market rolls over. For those in XIV, stay fully invested until 42.39 is breached (paid subscribers get a daily update on the stop).
For those who want to short GLD, a break below 122.75, buy the Sept 120-118 put spread.
Regarding my day job, we are batting a 1000 on our First Trust Deeds over the past 40 months (200 million funded, 10.9% return, 9 months average loan duration, zero investor losses(you can request a detailed performance audit on all of our investments)), and we have some nice new developments starting with our builders. If you are looking for some nice yields (10-13% Annualized), professional, corporate borrowers, short duration (6-18 months), and a well collateralized, (60-70% loan to value range), and you are first lien title holder, go to my landing page, and learn more.
http://ignitefunding.com/landing-page-kudla-con/
Please click to enlarge the charts, and go to www.realtimetradingsignals.com to subscribe to my daily trade signals)
Sunday, August 3, 2014
Focus
Well, per my post last week we blew right through the crossroads, and Thursday/Friday big range days reminds me too much like 2008 all over again. As volatility picks up, you must swing on shorter and shorter time frames, and the mistake I made then as a leveraged trader is not getting smaller, faster, and more conservative, immediately. Therefore I am going to get very focused, and focused on volatility.
Money is money, and I am just getting pure. No need to look at a hundred stocks when everything is tied to volatility. I made my most money trading XIV and UVXY puts during these elevated levels in 2011 as intraday moves can give you a weeks worth of profits. There are a couple of trade-able edges in this environment, I have shared in the past, and will again.
Regarding gold, et al. I am staying away as I think we are deflating, and with the Fed ending QE, I don't see a catalyst, unless gold responds positively to a hedge unwind.
On to the VIX. I am looking for an overbought retracement (we may touch 17.80 area first), then a move higher to the 21 area. That will give us a very nice UVXY put trade. So for me, I have a VXX bull debit diagonal trade on Aug 29, Aug week2 29.50 (I have been opening, closing, and moving the sold leg every week) and will close he sold if we hit new highs, or a new buy signal on my expected dip. I also bought some UVXY Aug, 30 strike puts, and will follow the signal above. I will also point out XIV trades intraday, with tight stops.
We are back in a traders market, don't get sea sick.
www.realtimetradingsignals.com is my paid site.
Money is money, and I am just getting pure. No need to look at a hundred stocks when everything is tied to volatility. I made my most money trading XIV and UVXY puts during these elevated levels in 2011 as intraday moves can give you a weeks worth of profits. There are a couple of trade-able edges in this environment, I have shared in the past, and will again.
Regarding gold, et al. I am staying away as I think we are deflating, and with the Fed ending QE, I don't see a catalyst, unless gold responds positively to a hedge unwind.
On to the VIX. I am looking for an overbought retracement (we may touch 17.80 area first), then a move higher to the 21 area. That will give us a very nice UVXY put trade. So for me, I have a VXX bull debit diagonal trade on Aug 29, Aug week2 29.50 (I have been opening, closing, and moving the sold leg every week) and will close he sold if we hit new highs, or a new buy signal on my expected dip. I also bought some UVXY Aug, 30 strike puts, and will follow the signal above. I will also point out XIV trades intraday, with tight stops.
We are back in a traders market, don't get sea sick.
www.realtimetradingsignals.com is my paid site.
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