Tuesday, March 15, 2011

GLD a IHS tracing out?

As I was scrolling through my charts, I noticed that GLD is coming down to test the 100% line from the July bottom to the October high.  Looking at the cycles since then, it appears that a IHS is tracing out, with the neckline at approx. 138 and the shoulder at the fib line to a buck lower.  Abounce from here or even as low as 133 can be pretty exciting.  A resolution can be in the 155 area.

Needless to say I am still very long my miners, although I wrote calls on silver due to OEX week (good timing huh!).  For my options, I plan on rolling to May next week but am expecting the metals to catch a strong bid within the week.  In eight business days all open March silver contracts get delivery of the metal, and I believe there is not enough to go around.

I am also staying with my plan of long silver, silver miners, and FSLR, and short SPY.  It served me well this morning.  I added, CCJ, PCX, and FCX calls for April, this morning.  Japanese reconstruction is going to be commodity friendly.

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