Sunday, March 10, 2013

Genie Out of the Bottle?

Please reference my post from last week.  Everything was poised to go higher, but I thought we'd have some breathing space for a week or so.  But it is not the case.  SPY keeps chugging along, and the players are using the same playbook as before.  Oil is up, gasoline is up, VIX is down, Bonds are down (read rates are up), gold, silver and miners are down, oops, no they are not!

I see this as a shift in investor mentality, and could usher in the next move higher in commodities and metals.  Palladium is also stirring, with PAL having a double digit up week.

To know with more certainty, I will watch the price of oil, and the cost of credit, and see what the FED starts jawboning about when we get to their recent highs again.  If the commodities and credit ignore Ben and keep moving higher then he is going to get the great rotation he did not want, and you will see big moves back into commodities until they force a real recession again.

Enjoy the charts.

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