Sunday, October 6, 2013

Give me a V

Volatility selling over the past four years have been extremely profitable, as the banks, the Fed and the hedge funds sell it to drive prices of risk assets higher.  I have a very good friend who is bank auditor, and over dinner we discussed how having  low and falling volatility allows the banks to justify to him why their value at risk is what it is (justify higher risk).  This works the same way in the stock market, when volatility is sold, algos recalculate the risk equation, and they buy. But volatility can go up too, and usually 3-4 time a year we get a spike, and once a year it is a super spike.  I think the latter is at hand.

Looking at my charts, the VIX-X, relative strength on the weekly made a higher low, as did price.  This is important as usually VIX-X trades in a range, and resets the RSI at a oversold level for the next push higher. This signals for me 4-6 weeks of higher volatility.

The daily charts tell me though, we may get a short rally in the stock market, and some more selling in volatility, but once that plays out or the signal fails, I will be an aggressive buyer of volatility.

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