I am Pretty Short

Next week is Fed week, and the hope is the taper is tapered, but it will not be.  The government just raked in enormous amounts of tax revenue, and this will continue as most loss carry forwards are now being exhausted, and there is plenty of cap gains.  There is no need for the credit from the government until at least June.  The second hope is the economy is reviving on its own.  Credit growth and velocity does not bear this out.  Income stagnation with higher health, food, and energy costs/taxes will further retard the animal spirits. China's implosion and Russian sabres also will not help.

My signals confirm this on commodities and I am pretty much short them all.  Gold and miners are catching a Russian lift, but they will not be able to resist the taper news, and will fall along with energy into the summer. As you can see from my portfolio along with my option posts I am defensive, and will remain so.  Unless I am wrong about the taper, it is difficult to see new highs and commodities continuing their ascent.

On another note, I was very pleased with the response and interest I received on my Trust Deed post I did two weeks ago.  You can view it here.   http://arum-geld-gold.blogspot.com/2014/04/something-different.html  or you can just go to my landing page at http://ignitefunding.com/landing-page-kudla-con/  

As a stock trader the best way to equate Trust Deed Investing is to think of these investments as selling deep in the money calls (30 to 40%) on a low beta stock, yet still receive 10 to 12% annual yield, with no commission fees. It takes a pretty severe market dislocation  to lose any principal.  The reason for me pounding the table on this is my view volatility is going to get and remain elevated for quite some time and the chop is going to destroy a lot of portfolios. Investing in the right Trust Deeds that you own is calm and rewarding, and is a very good alternative investment. This is also how the rich invest; high yields over secured with real collateral.

Disclaimer; I am not a broker nor get compensated for selling these Trust Deeds.  I work for the company in other capacities and am a strong believer in them.

Please click to enlarge the charts, and go to my marketing site if you wish to get more trades.  www.realtimetradingsignals.com