These last two weeks feels like a change in trend is coming. My signals are firing and failing, and I must step down in time frames to squeeze out profits. From a macro perspective it seems to make sense, the heroin from the FED is slowly drying up, and the Fed to SPY ratio says that SPY already hit the theoretical price that the final Fed Balance sheet will reach.
Volatility has refused to go down, and the dollar is up, which informs me that big money is getting defensive and this takes another funding source away from the index algos.
Small caps and commodities are struggling, and gold, silver, and miners are trying to reestablish themselves but no big moves so far.
If the dollar breaks out, it looks like TLT, FXI, and EWJ all look like macro buys, and I will call out calls on dips. I will also focus on TNA puts. The metals and miners are all in the handle stage of cups, and are moving up, so will be buying dips with calls.
For volatility, I am going to be a bit of Sybill. I am going to play with spreads on both, and manage the sold legs to profit both ways.
So those that subscribe, I will be very focused. FXI, EWJ, VXX, UVXY, TNA, GLD, SLW, and GDX. We will trade these a little faster than normal as the market, in my view will try to shake out positions more frequently. Monday before the open, I will tweet out my current positions, and the trades expected to signal that day.
www.realtimetradingsignals.com is my paid site.
Click to enlarge