Saturday, October 30, 2010

Gas up with Natgas MLP's

By nature, I am a trend guy.  I spent most of my corporate career looking at the future and divining trends.  I invest/trade the same way.  In the energy field, this country has only two good, domestic options in its energy future; natural gas and nuclear.  Nuclear has reached recognition stage and is now catching a bid, and I wrote on its bright future in prior posts.

Natural gas is still trying to balance supply and demand, and prices continue to fall on average. I view this as a cyclical problem and have already positioned myself accordingly with SJT and LINE.  Why? Contrary to popular media opinion, the Northern Hemisphere is in a cooling trend, this pressures stockpiles, Natural gas can be converted to Ag Chemicals which is going to start a major buying move as farmers have underapplied fertilizers to save money, now yields are suffering, a weak dollar will make oil less attractive against domestic Natural Gas, and the clean energy movement will force companies and utilities to move to natural gas.

Linn energy has already Tripled from my ititial purchase price because they are astute hedgers and have more oil in their mix.  San Juan Basin is an American pure play, mostly Natural gas producer and is slowly rising every month.  A third player I am watching and now will start buying is PVX, Provident Energy out of Canada.  They produce and ship liquid natural gas. I like the chart, and it is looking at breaking out again. 

These MLP's pay between 6.5%-9.4% monthly distributed dividends, so I get paid on these while I await gas prices to catch a bid.

I buy a little each month (LINE have a full position) as the RSI7 comes off the bottom and therefore achieve alpha to the market with low volatility.

1 comment:

  1. The best post I read all weekend...Thanks! Jordan

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