Monday, January 17, 2011

SPY - Additional Data Points

A poster asked me to look at the price to 200 EMA for the period I covered in the last post.  Below is the updated chart.  We are stretched greater than average, but alas not predictive in determining how severe it the move down can be.  Note to self, check your exuberance before you check your data points.

Some stats and the legend; green shading in the percent loss area is greater than average, green in the percent EMA means the stretch was higher than average, purple is when the 200 EMA was above price, and red is where the loss was less than average, but the EMA was stretched above average.  Minimum loss was 7%.

Having said that, I still am of the view that the low volatility and persistent climb over that past seven weeks puts us in a fragile state, and APPL reporting on Jobs leaving, and some of the price blowups on the misses gives me confidence.

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