Thursday, March 1, 2012

Welcome SMT blog posters!

You are welcome to comment on any post here and have an open stock market investing discussion on this blog.  Feel free to talk about the market action and discuss possible trades.

You are NOT limited to commenting only on my posts, you can talk about anything market related as you used to be able to do over at SMT public blog before comments were turned off.

Just click on "Comments" at the bottom of any of my posts to add your comments and start the conversation.

This blog is hosted on Blogger, just like SMT.   So when you comment, log in with the same Google account you use over at SMT and we will all be able to recognize each other.

UPDATE:  Due to a technical error, we lost 60+ comments from March 1st (see comments below for an explanation).  Sorry about that!  The problem has been corrected and comments should be just fine moving forward.

97 comments:

  1. Hi everyone, any comments about what happened to gold yesterday? Thx Bob for opening up a new uncensored blog! Hope I posted in the right place.

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    1. Your welcome, and you are at the right place.

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  2. am I crazy, or did 50 + posts just disappear??

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  3. NO .. you are NOT crazy!

    My "web expert" was messing around with the comments settings and accidentally deleted all of the comments posted earlier today!

    So unfortunately, we are starting over again.

    Sorry about that!

    I've asked Alex to come back and repost some of his stuff from earlier in the day.

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  4. Man, what kind of IDIOT would do something like that!

    Oh yeah, it was ME! Do'h!

    Sorry everybody, it was MY fault for wiping out about 60 comments from today.

    I was helping Bob customize his blog ... GREAT help huh?

    Please don't hate me.

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  5. Hey GUYS --ALEX HERE--I am EAST COAST USA, and am retiring for the night, I will come back in the morning and try to re-post my charts and thoughts in case anyone missed them.

    Maybe JAYHAWK and others can too?

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  6. Thanks Alex!

    Now here is an extended version of a comment of mine that got deleted ...

    IF you want to buy silver/gold on a dip, here's my "secret tip" ...

    Watch the price at 5:00 AM PT (8:00 AM ET) and you will notice that gold and silver often
    bottom for the day during that 5-6 AM hour (8-9 ET) especially right at 5:00 AM.

    I've been told that's because the "London Fix" is set at that time ... I don't know if that is really the reason, but go back and look at charts of SLV and AGQ (I'm a silver bug) and you will notice that that low price for the day is often around 5-6 AM PT.

    So if you're thinking that the Wednesday "crash" was just a fakeout and your're thinking about getting back in, watch the prices and buy in the pre-market.

    The pre-market opens at 5:00 AM PT ... which just happens to match the low point of the day for silver, so you often need to buy right at the open of the pre-market.

    In fact, here's another tip ....

    I've had some luck putting in "stink bids" (limit buy price well below current market price) for the pre-market the night before and sometimes you'll catch a seller napping because they have not updated their ask price and you can grab some shares right when the pre-market opens and the computers do their thing.

    Of course, once the market is open, the prices adjust quickly.

    Also, if you have never traded in the pre-market before don't mess around with trying to get the seller to come down to your bid price ... if you see a good price GRAB IT by paying the asking price at that moment because once silver/gold start to move that price can run away from you FAST. You don't want to miss a great entry point by haggling over a few pennies.

    So there's my contribution to the "lost comments" file.

    Again, I apologize to everybody who posted earlier today ... I'm SORRY!

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  7. Bob,
    I didn't know if you saw my comments earlier, but I wanted to wish wish you all the best in your subscription service as well as in your efforts to take your blog to the next level. I have always appreciated your willingness to share your wisdom around the blogosphere.

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  8. Silver is now dropping in the overnight .... keep an eye on that 5:00 AM PT dip! ;)

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  9. Just to clarify ... I am NOT saying I am buying in the morning, just sayin' to watch for the dip and see if silver "bottoms" at 5-6 AM PT.

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  10. gottahaveit,

    Thx for the 8AM EST buying tip

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  11. Gold/silver 2/29/12 discussion.

    http://smartvolume.wordpress.com/2012/03/01/stalemate/

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  12. Gottahaveit, thanks for posting this link to the SMT site. It is great to have a blog where we can exchange ideas without fear of defensive recriminations. Also great to have a forum with access to great traders like yourself, bob and alex.. all the best,

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  13. If you look at spot silver, you'lll see the low so far today was at 4:40 AM ... it has bounced a little from there ... now we have to see if that was the low for the day. Again, this was just a lesson ... I have not decided whether I will add silver yet, but if I were adding this MIGHT be a good spot.

    Of course, if silver continues to drop all day all bets are off, my 5:00 AM tip only works if you thnk silver is going UP for the day.

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  14. Right now, AGQ (my favorite silver stock) is trading at a low of $64.36 in the pre-market. Will be interesting to see if that is the low for the day.

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  15. Gary is going heavy into UUP at the open, he thinks the dollar has bottomed. UUP is currently at $22.10 in the pre-market, will be interesting to see what happens from here. My EUO is up 1.36% in the pre-markt vs. 0.64% for UUP. As I posted on Gary's site, I went with EUO to get a little more "juice" ... so far that is working.

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    Replies
    1. gottahaveit: where do you see pre-market price for those etfs? TOS doesn't have premarket for etfs only for futures. and which broker you use for pre-marker order? mines doesn't have such offer. thanks

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    2. I use Charles Schwab "StreetSmartEdge" trading platform ... I can see pre-market bid and ask in real time.

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    3. jj, TOS has real-time premarket prices for ETFs as well as stocks. Put the ETFs on a quotes list along with your stocks...

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    4. Hamvestor: How? I have the quotes list show all thoese ETFs are in yellow with closing price of yesterday. only those futures are in red which means price is moving... thanks

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    5. jj, I'm not sure what to suggest, other than calling a TDA rep to talk you through it. On my TOS platform stock quotes lists (I have four lists), the ETF premarket quotes are updating by the second as I type, just as on my Fidelity screens...

      Delete
  16. Silver just hit a new low for the day a few minutes ago ... AGQ got a little under $64 in the pre-market ... but I'm not buying (yet) because dollar is strong, which is why Gary is adding to UUP at the open. Just giving you a running commentary to demonstrate how I look at silver during the 5-6 AM dip. IF the dollar is going to take off and run higher today, silver will likely fall during the day so the "dip" will probably not end up being the low for the day this time. We just have to wait and see.

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    Replies
    1. And DOC waits for weekly confirmation on the dollar. It could be a headfake

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  17. If you go to Netdania, you can see spot silver in real-time. I like to use the 5-minute chart during the day to get a feel for the movement of siver (and gold, USD, etc.) IF silver heads up today, the low so far was at 5:40 AM (PT)

    http://www.netdania.com/Products/live-streaming-currency-exchange-rates/real-time-forex-charts/FinanceChartPopUp.aspx?symbol=XAGUSD|netdania_fxa& name=Silver, spot

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  18. My point in all of these comments (other than trying to make up for the comments I accidently "erased" last night) is to show you some tools you can use if/when you decide to get back into silver/gold. Gary doesn't talk about this kind of stuff, he's more a buy/sell at the open or close kind of guy.

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  19. What happened to the Disqus module?

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    1. I am a computer geek so I volunteered to help Bob tweak his blog because he is too busy trading stocks to mess with stuff like this.

      Well, I turned Disqus "off" when I was playing around with the comments settings and that's what "erased" all the comments from yesterday.
      I had no idea that switching Disqus off would wipe out all the old comments! :-(

      When I turned it back on, they were gone. Needless to say, I was freaked out!

      I know that Bob likes Disqus, but I think this is better because it is what people from the SMT blog are used to. Some people (me and Alex) were having problems with Disqus because we were not used to it, so I was trying to set the comments back to the standard Blogger settings like Gary has over at his SMT blog.

      You can sign in using the same Google account that you use over at SMT and we can all recognize each other.

      Sorry if I wiped out your comments from yesterday during the "Disqus Debacle!"

      Delete
  20. Nothing seems to be able to knock equities down. Maybe California falling into the Pacific would do it.

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  21. Good morning. Standing aside for now. I am looking at energy stocks for entries this morning. GTE, XCO,SNP, and CHK interest me the most.

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  22. DAX is flat, i expect U.S. at best flat. The DAX is a good proxy for our market, of late.

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  23. Bob,

    Great calls on energy lately. You and Alex have had a great feel for this market.

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  24. Does anyone know of any agriculture commodity based mutual funds? Our retirement account is locked to mutual funds :*(. I could only find PCRAX which doesn't look that appealing. There was a fund from Rydex but it follows the GSCISM Commodity Index which is heavily weighted to energy.

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  25. Ag funds, but be careful, some of these the volumes are too low to consider trading IMHO:

    DBA as of 6/30, cocoa, sugar, coffee, corn, cattle, hogs, beans, cattle. Wheat
    JJA beans, wheat, corn + 4 others
    RJA 20 different ag commodities, top: wheat, corn
    JJG beans, wheat, corn
    GRU wheat, corn, soymeal, beans
    SGG sugar
    DAG double long: corn, wheat, soybean, and sugar

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  26. skepticSQ, those are all etf's, don't know of any mutual funds

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  27. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  28. Down and down silver goes. Lets see if we get our retest of the lows from Feb 29

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    1. Yep, that's why did NOT buy the "dip" in silver this morning ... that only works if you think silver is going UP during the day.

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  29. I'll consider Gold when it gets to the golden area :*O http://screencast.com/t/zOQ534lR6

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  30. G-MORNING ALL

    F.W.I.W.

    I know its "LATE" in cycle terms, but I am still trading certain "set ups" hoping to scalp quick profits, with tight stops.

    WATCHing RENN, DANG, YOKU (maybe Buy gap fills??) today...GAPPED OPEN from BULL FLAGS & HUGE VOLUME to start the day ; ]

    BIOF earning out A.H. yesterday....I OWN IT - HUGE VOLUME ALSO

    SZYM, should drop and land on 10sma ($13.00) ...if it does so and turns back upward, I may add to current position.

    Be back later,

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  31. Alex has beeen CRUSHING it the last few weeks while I've been getting my head kicked in on the silver market. Listen to what he says!

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  32. Starting to enter my energy picks.

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  33. How long before Gary has another meltdown and turns it back off. Daddy scolds his children and shuts off the TV until he calms down.

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  34. Hey Alex,

    I was a lurker on the SMT board and really enjoyed your work along with Bkudla/Bob loves Hawaii.

    My longs right now are
    DANG
    RENN
    SINA
    OCLR
    CALX
    MPEL
    ULTA

    So... good day today LOL. Anyway, keep up the good work.

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  35. Hey Bob, thanks for providing this platform. Hope this turns into a good forum for people to express good ideas. There are enough "kids pools" out there by design!

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  36. Just a small request: Please only reply at the bottom. Please don't reply to each thread. It's hard to keep track of what post was posted when. So painful to go through the whole comment section every time.

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  37. OK, call me crazy but I could not resist the urge to add some AGQ today at a little over $64.

    I went fairly small (10% per account) and I may regret this but I feel like this "could" be a bottom of sorts so I'm starting to build my AGQ position back up.

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  38. Of course, now I see AGQ is falling ...

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  39. Sorry guys I have been in an unexpected phone call and will be busy for a bit...I will post later.

    As for Gary...he called us trolls and freeloaders...I thought we were CONTRIBUTORS!! I posted to help HIM see what he was missing, not freeload!

    Then he see's another blog welcomes people and re-opens??? He must NEED freeloaders and trolls for attention?? (SORRY for the rant...but he got a little 'self absorbed' there).

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  40. Pretty much steering clear of longs at the moment. Bought DUST earlier, and in and out of FXEN for a quick loss.

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  41. BLH,

    I just stopped by to say that i love what you've done to the place.

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    Replies
    1. Thanks man, I think we are getting that dollar bounce.

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  42. Alex,

    That's a great point!

    I notice there are only 12 comments on the SMT public blog right now ... one of
    them is mine and a few others have been deleted.

    What if you throw a party and nobody comes?

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  43. Likesmoney,

    Your blog rocks too!

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  44. Silver stalled at its 50% retracement to the tick. The zone between 30/32 is a vacuum. While 32 should offer support, it could easily hit 30 if that breaks.

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  45. I think that the dollar has bottomed.
    There is a daily swing low
    And now today, a weekly swing low and a weekly declining trend line break.

    I believe that today is day two of the dollar's daily cycle and also a new intermediate (weekly) cycle.

    The daily cycle should see the dollar trend higher for 12 - 20 days.

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  46. I agree that Gary was off base by a blanket call that there were freeloaders and trolls all over his blog. Normally, he has more patience then I, but I could imagine that 2 blogs would be a bit much, especially with a mix of veterans and newbies. This is a great alternative. Now, i retain a core positions in miners/metals/commodities, long the dollar, short the S&P, and keep long term holds in MLPs. Looking forward to new ideas for swing trades....

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    1. A few EDC puts on a 10 / 30 crossover of the 60 minute may prove profitable. I'll post it. I already have a small short on EDC right now.

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    2. In Gary's defense, there were a few legitimate trolls on that site and he exhibited a lot of patience when people took him to task for bad calls. Having said that, I don't understand him bunching together the trolls and the actual traders who were always respectful to Gary.

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  47. Possible inverse H&S path for gold. (Would back test the intermediate TL as well)


    http://screencast.com/t/mwXGcYst4

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  48. Remember when I said this is not a good day to buy silver ... I was right! LOL

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  49. The nice thing about Disqus is you could just post a link and it would make it clickable for you. I hate doing all that manual stuff to make my links work.

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  50. hi everybody!

    Someone destroyed my earlier text...Hope all is well.
    Thanks BLH for opening the blog

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  51. Jayhawk,

    Interesting chart there. It happens to jibe with WIlliam Wallace's expectation for gold to retest its 300 DMA.

    Today gold is about 7% above its 300 DMA. A 7% drop off from $1713, the current price, takes it a bit under $1600. But of course, by the time gold retests it the 300 dma will have risen slightly, meaning a retest would come darn close to $1600 exactly....maybe a few dollars above.

    And that's also where your chart has gold bouncing--at about $1600.

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  52. Sophia,

    That was ME who "destroyed your text" .... sorry about that!

    You can read the whole sad story in the comments from earlier today.

    ReplyDelete
  53. Want to thank you Alex, love your ideas and charts. Not much of a giver as mostly scalp futures and have long term core positions gold, but always willing to learn from you and Bob. keep up good work. Oh and relatively new, been following Gary for 7mos, mainly looking for market turns, and WW trades what I do. Good day

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  54. Great posts.. nice to have such a welcoming forum.. Thanks Bob... Alex, nice call so far on SZYM. So far bounced off the 10 day...got in at 13.06, You have an upside target?

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    Replies
    1. It looks decent on a 3 month daily, regained it's 10sma (but it could drop to the 20sma...so most important is Keep a Tight Stop. Dont lose money on it if these markets turn down for 2-3 wks from here. IF we get a little more upside next week, you see the up days are quite large (see Feb 22 , and Feb 27,28). I'd sell near 414.50 unless volume is HUGE.

      But more importantly...we are getting late in these Market runs...Pullback is coming SOON. Keep losses small ; ]

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  55. Stop back over the weekend, I am going to put up some posts and some buy and sell ideas for us to discuss and argue over. Thanks.

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  56. Hi All!!

    SOrry, been very busy 2day. My current thoughts.

    yes, the dollar is perking, and the markets ARE TOPPY, but I currently see what we've been seeing in SPX (Light volume selling to support) . I HONESTLY WONDER- one nore week of choppy toppy? and the dollar fills todays gap on UUP?

    http://www.screencast.com/t/iwnIuFgi

    This chart is 3.20 p.m. IF MKTS CLOSE UP, thats light volume UP , and then MONDAY could be a trap, and a plunge .

    All stocks look light volume selling, I personally dont short here -

    I showed this in JANUARY , when many were trying to pick "SHORT" positions.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/aTUh7sp34nQC

    We're close, BUT support still holds. POSSIBLY another week of choppy highs?? UUP fills gap??

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  57. I really should add this , however....Often these devious markets may be lightly pulling back to support and PLUNGE Monday, with a dollar rally! (wkends are tricky, huh? )

    So either way, we are in 50/50 land, but with a confirmed dollar swing. so risk is a tad more prevalent in either direction I.M.O.

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  58. DREW...my reply to you above, I meant $14.50...I doubt it'll reach $414.50 on this run LOL

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  59. Alex, thanks for the heads up.. keeping tight stops on all longs... and working some shorts too.. short IWM, and long EUO

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  60. I agree wit Alex, we could have a gap fill on UUP as it is prone to jump alot on it's way out of ICL...

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  61. Well glad that's over. My AGQ trade does not look too bad -- YET! Closed about 40 cents below my add price. I'm playing the contrarian here. Everybody's betting on silver to crash, so I added a little today in case "everybody" is wrong.

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  62. Gotta,

    I was in agreement with your contrarian view up until the dollar confirmed a new intermediate cycle had started - BUT why has the general market been so resilient with this rocketing dollar? It had a great excuse to pullback.

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  63. Yes, the reply feature could make it difficult to keep a flow to the comments section.

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  64. Guys, I'm not crazy about that "Reply" feature either ... but based on the disaster last night when I messed around with comments settings I'm reluctant to change anything else at this point. We'll see what we can do ... IF Bob dares to let me near his control panel again. LOL!

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  65. RobL,

    Believe me, I started second-guessing myself on that AGQ trade within minutes after I pulled the trigger. It's one of those trades where if it works you look like a genius, if it doesn't you look like an idiot.

    We'll find out fairly soon which one I am. ;-)

    Also, keep in mind that I went in fairly small, only 10% per account.

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  66. In the 86-day stock market cycle, the next likely turn day is March 9, next Friday, when the employment report is due. That would be a high-probability turn day for Gary for the dollar, too. With the Apple announcement coming Wednesday, and the daily fractal dimension just launching a trend, I probably will look for a double-short S&P vehicle to enter next Thursday. Until then, I've sold back to my core biotechs.

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    1. Farm Girl, may I ask what your core biotechs are? I wanted to build a core IBB after a dip in the SPY, but the dip never came. So I'm still waiting.

      Delete
  67. Alex,
    RE: Post Mar 2, 2012 09:08 AM
    I didn't see the comments that were posted when Gary shut SMT down but I can't imagine how he would consider you to be a freeloader or a troll.
    Yes, there were some trolls over there, but I have always considered your perspective to be one of significant value and that you have always presented your comments in a civilized manner.
    I also developed respect for your character due to your consistent willingness to help so many other people in such a kind and gracious way.
    I don't post very often, but I always read and appreciate your 'contributions'.

    ReplyDelete
  68. MOONDOGGIE

    Thanks for the kind post . I think he mis understood, no worries...I have other places to share now.

    I guess Gary did have some arguments over there with others (TIHU the day before shutting it down ) and I guess he was just having a bad period of time. I had posted 2 weeks prior When He was 100% UUP back in Early Feb , and I said the dollar was weak looking, and posted a chart...and said what I was buying and that 'LONG MKTS' was still where to be for now...we went back and forth nicely but it just went south from there : ] No worries going forward.

    A ton of people showed up and basically said (same as you) that they thought I meant no harm , and I apologized for upsetting him with a contrary opinion . Even Said I respect him for being my teacher when it came to cycles....He didnt reply . Now we move on ; ]

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  69. Alex,

    How much do you take into consideration the markets direction based on the dollar?

    Thanks

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  70. I shut down the blog for the simple reason that troll infestation was getting to intense. It had nothing to do with Alex. This is just the path that almost all blogs take. Eventually they all spiral down into vulgarity and name calling.

    It was time to halt the spiral and take a breather. Hopefully the SMT blog can avoid that for as long as possible.

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  71. Gary , Thx for the response...

    Seriously...AT FIRST my feelings were a tad hurt (insulted) when I was emailed and told that your public bloggers were being called simply trolls and 'freeloaders'. I wont take it personally and I'm over it , and all is good now , I know you got attacked and had a rough few weeks of trivial debate rather than constructive debate.

    -but F.W.I.W.- honestly I usually just post if I see something 'differently' playing out , because I just want to share or "contribute" to a community of good traders / investors .

    Its all good now : ]

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  72. Intern Mar 3, 2012 09:36 AM

    Alex,

    How much do you take into consideration the markets direction based on the dollar?

    INTERN

    Quite a bit usually (and now especially ) , but to me that doesnt mean that I think the dollar is STRONG from here out...I'll wait and see--

    I thought this a few weeks ago (but it didnt reach the 200sma : ]

    http://www.screencast.com/t/drIOLGG5f2F


    AND MY ORIGINAL THOUGHT WAS...
    1 )DOLLAR bounce ( maybe only to 50sma, then struggle)
    2) markets dip to 50 SMA (LIKE 2010 when many expected a CRASH too)

    http://www.screencast.com/t/53cZVByi9Bn


    3) dollar eventually fails (qe3 or whatever)
    4) COMMODITIES /MKTS/METALS continue

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  73. The above post was my ORIGINAL thought as the Markets continued to roar ahead strongly- but now with cycles calling for an ICL in the dollar (maybe being in) --I need to see how things play out.

    Polys wk end cycle report shows a long term possibility on the dollar that I can work with : ]

    Likesmoney Also has a great view of the Dollar, so when the toppy mkts drop, I will be examining all things together : ]

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