Saturday, June 15, 2013

All About Ben

Last week I stated that we will have one more push higher before the wheels come off, and judging by the supercharged defense of the 50 EMA I am keeping to that opinion.  Over the last 60 days the Fed has learned a lot about what the market thinks of tapering; and rising interest rates, and falling equities is not in the best interest of an organization will certainly be blamed for any economic dislocation caused by said tapering.

But c'mon, does anybody really believe they will let interest rates rise while headline inflation is non existent.  In fact I can argue that deflation is a very real problem, and rising rates would plunge us into said deflation with a depressionary topping.  I am looking for more blah, blah, blah, we will watch carefully, blah, blah, blah, but do nothing, blah, blah, blah.  Plus wit Syria erupting and the Saudi stock market in free fall today, it is doubtful we will throw another log on the fire.

So, my view is SPY up to new highs, GLD down, IEF up, and energy most certainly up.  Bonus, the solars look ready to rock, for at least the small caps. ( I have a series of buy orders set in this space)

If I am wrong, I have stops set on my long positions ( mostly energy, Ag Chem, commodity, and some miners), and buy orders on puts, but don't think I am.

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