Sunday, June 9, 2013

Last Hurrah

For those who read my posts regularly, you know I am and have been calling for a new and last highs to at least 170, or even up to 184 on SPY.  This is based on some back of the envelope math regarding the Fed's balance sheet and its projected growth.  But first we needed to touch the 50 EMA to clear the way for the final assault. We got that on Thursday.  If you follow me on Twitter, you saw I had SPY puts, closed them Wednesday at the close, and bought Calls Thursday mid morning.  The move to Friday evening was even stronger than I thought as SPY almost got back to the 20, and I closed my calls.

I am still in the camp that we make new highs before we correct down to at least the 200 this time, or even retrace 61% of this entire move.  I also think the Q2 earnings reports will be the catalyst for the move down as the estimates do not match reality.

I am watching to see if the 20 is breached before my signal tells me to sell.  If above, then that is my stop and I will buy calls on the close above, if below, I will short it again, and I believe the 50 will probably not hold it this time.

If SPY is matter, then GLD is antimatter, and looking at the chart, it appears a final low is going to happen.  Looking at the fib lines, I see 126 as a minimum.  I bought 130-125 put spreads for June.  Above 139 this week, and I go long, but I doubt that happens.

Energy has about finished its coil, and it has been following the SPY, so I think we break higher.  I bought HAL on Friday, but a number of stocks hit my screen, that I will buy next week.  Also, solar looks like the next run is setting up, as well as Natural Gas stocks.

Ag Chem is waking up, and I bought POT, but IPI also hit my buy screen, and will consider a trade in that one, as well.  We had a nice trade in that a couple of weeks ago.

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