Saturday, August 17, 2013

A lot To Say Today

The markets have finally woke up, especially the commodity sector which I specialize in trading.  It has been a long winter.  Exciting times are once again upon us.

Before I get there,I want to talk about some market, professional, and personal milestones that we crossed in August.

Personally; I trade a stock called XIV the most of all of the stocks I trade.  Why?  Because it is designed to go up. When the market is moving higher, you can simply go with the flow, buy oversold and sell overbought on the 60 or the daily.  When the market is down, like last Thursday and Friday, you can catch very profitable one or two day moves off of extreme oversold settings.  In this case 3% in 24 hours, in a down market!

I spent a lot of time looking for a high probability of profit, simple indicator(s), to trigger a trade.  I found it, and I decided to share it with everybody in a eBook I wrote for Amazon.  They have accepted and published it, and the reviews have been very good so far.  We hit number seven on the stock and investing bestseller list in its first week, and I priced it reasonable for all to afford and enjoy.  It is called Stock Volatility Money Machine, by Bob Kudla, on Amazon.

Professionally;  I have had my trading signal service for three years now.  We have provided over 500 signals that average over 100% annualized, average time in trade 7 days, and as part of a portfolio of equal sized trades, with trade costs factored in, over 30% returns in 2011 and 2012.  My expectations are we will meet or exceed that in 2013.  These are very good returns considering most of my trades are in the commodity space.

Based on my paying subscribers feedback, I now list and vary my trade size, average costs and how I buy and sell to maximize my profits when riding a trend, especially triple leveraged ETF's. This more closely matches my own portfolio.  The cost of my service ranges from $20-$40 a month, month to month. It is a great value. is the website.

I also started posting some trades daily for free, that hit my buy or short screen, that are not in my focus list, but might be of interest to you.  These are swing trades primarily (5-7 day trades)

Now for the market.  The sea change I have been talking about, has occurred, and my view is the money flow is moving to hard assets from financial assets, even though in my opinion there is no economic growth. This is a currency problem.  Look at when SPY started sputtering, and when gold and oil started moving higher; July 1st.  That is when the YEN collapse started reversing in on itself.  The Yen is even more shorted than the dollar, and as this trade unwinds, it will move higher than the dollar.  Traders were shorting gold, miner, commodities, and buying SPY, and high beta.  This is all being reversed.

In addition, and much more toxic is the 10 year is moving much higher, this adds fuel to the fire as funds bailout of losses in fixed incomes, look at financial assets struggling, see commodities moving higher, and jump in.  None of this makes economical sense, but relative value currency sense.  If our dollar continues to weaken, all of these moves will accelerate until food and oil prices crush the economy.

Tactically, next week can be a bit of a counter trend move.  Gold, silver, miners, oil and such are all hitting resistance zones of fib/trend/MA lines. Don't short into these retracements.  Use them to add to positions. SPY looks like the 50 may hold again, and I expect they will try to chase out weak shorts.  We will short the failure of this counter trend with TZA and EDZ.

Natural Gas looks like a bottom is in, and I am very close to buy signals on GASL and CHK.  I am also watching BHI for a trendline breakout, and DDD for a high beta long trade if we move sharply higher.

Please ask any question or provide any feedback in the comments area. Enjoy the charts.

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