Saturday, August 10, 2013

My Meme is Still in Place

SPY is struggling, gold, silver, and the miners starting to move higher, oil tested a bottom, but still not sure if we break out, and waiting for Natural Gas to bottom.

Knowing this, I am holding SH, and will add TZA at some point in the next two week.  I will probably scale in 20% positions over the next 5 down days.  SAND and SLW are coming to life.  I was disappointed in myself for not buying more on the latest weakness, and instead of chasing, I will buy some SIL as my miner proxy and hold my current size in SLW.  Scaling in positions of PLG, and PPP as 50% move lotteries.

Regarding NUGT, I was early on the last attempt for a breakout, and closed my position for a small loss. This time my scale in was better timed, and we are solidly green and I have started to scale out on the last two day big moves higher.  My plan for the foreseeable future will be to buy back on weakness and sell strength.  The upcoming move higher in the miners will give us 200-300% returns, and still allow us to manage our risks.  YOU CAN'T BUY and HOLD triples.

I have the same game plan for SAND, I am nearly break even, and I have capital to buy 500 more shares to get me to 2,500.  Once there, I will be scaling in and out.  Everyone is getting excited about a 30% move in GLD, and if that happens SAND will double, and with no COMEX default risk.  So staying with SAND, and occasional GLD call debit spreads.

Energy, it sure wants to go higher, and I have been trading aggressively in the futures market, but also built positions in NBR, XCO, NE, and CPE.  We had nice trades in SGY and SWN, and stopped out of NFX for a loss.  I want to buy BHI, at some point, as well.  The drillers seem to be saying we are moving higher, even the NatGas drillers.

I am not keen on solar, except that YGE looks like it wants to break out (chart below).

Next week is OPEX week, so we could see some head fakes, but those will be opportunities to add back. The market is starting to get fun trading again.

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