Sunday, November 3, 2013

Calm Before The Storm

Two weeks ago I posted on do we blow up or off. We got a little pop and then some selling, but now the market is digesting what is next, and judging from the Fed's comments and the bond and commodity markets it doesn't look promising.

But knowing the market, I think they will try to push the broad market up to test the Fed week highs before succumbing to the market makers during OPEX week.  Looking at the chart below, the triples have been embedded, but are now cracking, and the the broad market is finally showing signs of fatigue.  I am holding TQQQ puts, SDS, and TWM.

It also appears that the volatility index is resisting falling further, but no one is bidding up protection in a meaningful way yet.  A calm Vix means we may still get UVXY puts and XIV to continue to work for us. Still holding UVXY puts, and closed my XIV Friday, but will buy back on my signal.

The metals and miners have whip sawed a bit, but if the RSI moves back into the upper channel, I think we move higher in both next week.  I am building a position in NUGT, and will scale in and out as necessary to achieve my 10% gain in invested capital by the end of November.

Energy; had my best trades shorting oil, and I closed my UCO puts for now.  Still holding GASL November puts. OIH and UGAZ are telling me this party in natural gas is over for a bit, and longer term energy looks like it is in trouble (oil and nat gas).

No comments:

Post a Comment