Sunday, November 24, 2013

Sornette or Bayonet

Some weeks back I reposted work by Sornette regarding the fractal expression of a bubble.  Apparently Fed economists can't see them but mathematicians, and just about everyone else can.  This market is following this expression to a tee.  Their work looked at two possibilities, 1850 by mid November or 2200 by mid January.

There is a case for both, and it just depends on the powers driving this market are hoping for. The taper drumbeat, deflation breaking out, political animosity, employment stalling, may give these investors an incentive to try to get what they can, as fast as they can.  But Friday Vix has nearly hit multi-year support/lows, the dollar failed to breakout, oil nearly broke out, natural gas is breaking out, and SPY crashed the BB bands to the high side.  Next week is a slow week, so not sure what if anything will happen.

But the following weeks get very interesting.  My view is with the lying and uproar over ObamaCare, and the move by Reid to end filibusters, the next budget meetings are not going to be fun.  If the Republicans grow a pair, and can actually articulate what they believe, this battle and 2014 is going to be a rocky year politically. Naming Christie the President of the Republican Governors Association is a tell that the GOP wants to win, and push forward someone who can turn a phrase and blunt rhetoric.

I think we squeeze higher the next few days and and December is a disaster.  High beta is already faltering, and banks are extremely stretched over their 200 MA, some of them are 40% over.  For me I am long oil, long vix, long gold, and long miners.  Enjoy the charts and turkey Day.

PS, the Iranian deal maybe short term positive for the market and negative for oil.

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