Sunday, February 9, 2014

Get Bold with Gold

We killed it last week.  My signals were right on regarding volatility, and my subscribers who took the UVXY put trade I recommended made 2-X on their money, and I think UVXY hits my 40-50% retrace level and then they will make 6 to 8 times their investment.  The signals also told us to close our short hedge for the broad markets, and to stay generally long the metals and miners.

My subscribers made 10 years worth of subscription fees with that one trade.  Think about joining.  Every month, a set up like UVXY sets up for nice gains.  I am doing a training class on how I look for these trades so you can take these high probability opportunities on your own.  There are more trades than I can ever show you, so I am happy to share my secret.  email for more information.

Also, I adopted a portfolio approach to my service this year as most investors can't trade every moment, and frankly many traders jump trends after they occur and then are late and in this market late is a loss.  The portfolio is handily beating the broad market and with a lot less trading.  I focus on four areas; volatility, energy, metals/miners, and tech.  All segments have a hedge.  I am long biased, as the market is, and will use hedging to manage the downturns.  As an example, the market fell nearly 7 percent, and we stayed flat. Now we are strong long again (and up 4%, market down 4% year to date), and am in a good position for this retrace. I post the portfolio and performance every week below.

To the markets; I expect a follow through to the equity move as that has been the pattern, and my signals are on a buy.  Yellen is before congress this week, and she is not a hawk, especially since the economic picture is so weak.  The only reason why they are tapering at all is because of the amount of tax dollars that will pour into the Treasury through May.  We will be pumping QE hard after that.  Why?  Obama Care is the largest middle Class tax ever inflicted on a population and it will grind the economy down all year, they will panic in an election year.  The Fed is a hammer (QE) and all the world's (Banks) problems are a nail.  This will make for an interesting trading year, at least.  Long XIV, no hedge.

Energy is ripping and finally seeing some price action on my OIH and HAL positions.  They are good with nice buy signals and are still a buy fo new money.  Natural Gas is still weather dependent so staying away for now as it is a traders sector right now.  Energy is signalling to me that they are expecting more QE, and are frontrunning Yellen.  Remember, people do not drive in bad weather, and all of the refineries are in the south so weather narrative is a head fake.  Long HAL and OIH, small GASX hedge.

The metals and miners are positioned for the often talked about but not realizing rip your face off rally.  I expected some retrace in both last week, and we did not get it, and the playbook when ramping stocks is to whack metals and miners. Since the playbook changed, I take notice.  I am well positioned long with AG, SAND, and DGP.  I will set a stop on my DUST hedge.

Tech stocks.  The one's that I own, I am keeping (DDD, ADSK, CREE and ADBE).  I doubled my position in DDD after their earnings report, and I dropped my very profitable QID hedge on Wednesday.  These are long term positions for our portfolio as I like the secular story, and will manage with size and QID hedge.  I expect Tech to move with the broad market.

Have a great trading week, and enjoy the charts below.

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