Sunday, February 23, 2014

We are in No Man's Land

Just about everything I follow except for oil is overbought, but not a sell, and at resistance lines (I don't chase small caps or biotech). However I do have opinions and stops so I will continue to share.  My view is the market is going to continue to assume Yellen will not taper based on market conditions deteriorating and will keep pressing on the dollar down and markets, and metals higher until the FOMC meeting.

In that meeting, the taper will continue or increase announcement will be made, and the market will not like it. The Fed can afford to do this as the Treasury will be overflowing in cash from tax receipts from March through May.  Plus Yellen must establish her chops as a decisive leader and protector of the dollar.
If I am wrong, I already have reduced my position size in half on my portfolio and bumped up my hedge a bit, and there is no way I am putting new money to work except with DGP, over the next month.

Regarding Energy; I got a sell signal on oil on Friday from my momentum program, and I understand the cycle guys are seeing a cycle high.  I recommended buying March UCO puts and Monday is not too late. Oil simply pushed to far, too fast.  Natural Gas is a beast, but it is all spec and weather driven.  I bought UNG April puts on Friday, as well.  I am giving it time for a burst of mild weather and roll decay to give UNG a nice elevator ride down.  I'll then hop off with some nice gains.

Our portfolio is doing just great, easily beating the market, and positioned to keep doing just that.  If you wish to subscribe go to

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