All it took was a rumour of Russia invading Ukraine and the market dropped 15 points in an hour. We are skating on thin ice (catch the linkage, March, ice, thin) the Vix is staying elevated within its RSI channel, and in fact has triggered a buy. I went long VXX at $43 this week.
Many are seeing a move to all time highs, but my signals are telling me otherwise. I now have sell signals on Energy, Natural Gas, Gold, Silver, Miners, Copper, Biotech, the QQQ's and SPY. Another blogger I respect has just indicated a sell using his prop signal, and it is scary accurate for predicting the intermediate moves for the broad market.
There is simply not enough to like at these levels that deserves new capital. Tactically, I will continue to recommend adding to and reducing positions on our portfolio of which we are the least invested this year, including counting the hedges, and will continue to reduce size. My main area to add on buy signal are in metal and miner's and my big area to continue shorting will be in Nat Gas and Energy. For speculation next week I may short IBB with puts.
To remind everyone of my approach; I use a long/short portfolio approach based on a 2 day trade trigger (so I don't over trade), across four major market segments in areas where I want exposure. I speculate with options on strong setups that deliver a very high probability of large profits (I share those with subscribers). That way perfection in signal calling is not needed for outperformance, and we outperform the market.
Enjoy the charts. Please click on them to enlarge.