Monday, December 13, 2010

ERX, Gravity per Chance?

It is probably obvious for those who are following that I think we are somewhat stretched in the commodity space.  ERX has had a nice run (chart one), and looking at it a different way, you can see it is stretching its LR for the six month channel.  My play is to short (via puts) in the morning, with the top of the channel as my exit, if wrong.  Due to decay and volatility fear, buying puts is preferable to buying calls on the inverse.  My target is $45-46 area.

I hold a a lot of oil MLP's, and used ERX, DIG and DUG to to hedge my positions.  My oil portfolio barely noticed the 2008 crash using this method.  I also took short positions in PTR (puts) today, and DO (call spread) last week.

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