Tuesday, December 28, 2010

My Strategic trading plan 2011

On my second to last post I shared my worldview on my best guess regarding 2011, and am positioned accordingly.  I will share more details in a moment, but want to make a point about planning.  I spent more than half of my corporate career as an executive in the technology space focusing on strategic planning / new products and acquisitions.  In that role we always worked from the future (as we best divined it) back to the present and determined our gaps, hence our plan was formed (getting from here to there).  It is no different in speculating with equities, and regardless of what anyone says, people trade with a bias, so the more informed you are, with a structure for your entries, and discipline for when you are wrong, you will do well over time.  Your plan must also be true to who you are, risk wise, time able to spend, capital available, etc.  I have a niche that I spend a lot of time researching, and a style that works for me.

Tactically, my buy themes are silver, uranium and natural gas; my view is these sectors are operating under fundamentals that are less sensitive to economics and currency games.  Silver is a supply/demand imbalance, Uranium is an inelastic buy cycle for the reactors, and natural gas is a value play.  An area where I will spend capital and time on is in the grain markets, (climate issues).

Where I am at the moment is a full commitment to Uranium, save for a buy stop on the balance of my Mawson position, I am accumulating Natural gas through MLP ETF's (three of them) monthly or when its RSI fall below 30, I have a core gold miner and silver miner position and will add to and sell based on my trade signals.  I also sell calls against more core positions when I see short term overvaluation/reversals and sell put spreads when the reverse is true.

I will short primarily through the large cap high beta names when I feel they are overvalued (currently short CMG).  I will sell any position if I lose faith in the company or my thesis.

My expectation is to nearly double my capital in 2011, (80%).  This is against a good size portfolio, a portfolio we live on.

I'd love to hear others' plans.

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