Twas The Night Before Taper

Please enjoy my version of this classic poem.  Merry Christmas and Happy New Year. 

Twas the night before Taper, when all through Morgan;s house
Not an investor was stirring, not even a bot.
The portfolios were hung by the brokers with care,
In hopes that St Yellen soon would be there.

The muppets were nestled all snug in their beds,
While visions of Cap-Gains danced in their heads.
And mamma in her ‘kerchief, and I in my cap,
Had just settled our brains for a 2014 nap.

When out on the lawn there arose such a clatter,
I sprang from the bed to see what was the matter.
Away to the window I flew like a flash,
Tore open the shutters and threw up the sash.

The moon on the breast of the new-fallen snow
Gave the lustre of mid-day to objects below.
When, what to my wondering eyes should appear,
But a miniature taper, and no tightening  there.

With a little old Fed Chair, so smart  and so glib,
I knew in a moment it must be St Yellen.
More rapid than algos her soothing words they came,
And she whistled, and shouted, and said more of the same

"Now Morgan! now, BOFA! now, Stanley and St Street!
On, Deutsche! On Barings, ! on, Citi and Chase!
To the top of the market! to the top of the bubble!
Now buy away! buy away! buy away all!"

As dry powder that's there before the wild selloffs fly,
When they meet with an algo, mount to the sky.
So up to the market-top the bankers they flew,
With the sleigh full of POMO,  St Yellen she knew.

And then, in a presser, I heard on the news
The prancing and pawing of each taper view.
As I admired my statement, and was patting my back,
Down went vol with a low volume attack.

She was dressed in PHD's, from her head to her foot,
But her ideas were all tarnished with Keynesian soot.
A bundle of QE she had flung on her back,

But she looked like a peddler, just opening her pack.

Her white papers how they twinkled! her words were so merry!
Her programs like candy, so sweet and so sure!

Tapering not tightening doesn't sound so scary,

Investors 'round the world were sure there'd be more.

So confident and bright, a right jolly old banker,
And I laughed when I saw her, in spite of myself!
A wink of her eye and a twist of her head,
Soon gave me to know I had nothing to dread.

She spoke not a word, but went straight to her work,
And filled all the statements, and if you sold your'e a jerk.
And laying her finger aside of her nose,
And giving a nod, up the market it  rose!

She sprang to her desk, to her bankers gave a whistle,
And away they all flew like HFT's on a missle.

 I heard her exclaim, ‘as they hid out of sight,
"Happy trading to all, and to all a good-night!"

Bob Kudla 2013

Watching Volatility

We are now once again whigging out on whether our drug dealer Ben Bernanke is going to give the market its fix, or we start going on our methadone treatments.  My personal view is they never taper as the patient is so dependent on their POMO doses it would cause a seizure in the markets.

The Fed is ultimately a political entity and causing a market crash during Christmas, while the incumbent President is weakened and on defense, and not wanting another thing to deal with, doesn't seem to me to be the brightest thing to do for their survival. Note Yellen is not confirmed yet, coincidence, I think not.

However, I could be wrong, so as I am buying UVXY puts for Week4 December (and will add if Monday or Tuesday is higher), I will buy some SPY puts expiring on Friday if the market is flat going into Wednesday morning.

Otherwise I am not adding anything new for this year and will let stops run their course on other current holdings.

TNX-X

We have the 10 year pushing right up to the 3% area again, and mortgage rates are now in the mid 4% range.  This is important as this IS the only thing that matters.

The whole purpose of the FED doing QE is to keep the banks from imploding.  All the other chatter is to simply keep you confused. The employment report is a house of mirrors, and it is simply a tool to push asset prices around where the TPTB need them pushed.

The banks need every dime of QE, for a very long time.  The banks are not lending because there is risk of default, so the FED must give them a free spread that they then lever up and buy ES future contracts and sell volatility contracts and generate profits.  At the same time the plan is to lift the price of housing so that others can buy them from the banks with the lowest possible loss and clean up their balance sheet in the process.

Well rising interest rates throws a grenade into this party, as housing simply dies unless prices start coming down again to produce a yield for investors.  Falling housing and stock prices, rising delinquencies, or falling sales will have a knock on effect economically and politically, and will destroy bank profitability.  Plus the Fed's other master the Government is not in a position to borrow at a higher average rate, and for 2014 the pols will want to spend to curry favor with voters.

This will not be allowed to happen.

But, is there a way for the Fed to taper and have the TNX-X fall?  3% yield on ten year paper to Japan looks awfully tempting.  They borrow at zero, clip coupons at 3% and get to devalue their currency.  The dollar stays stable, energy pushes back down, and rates drift down again.  They could easily soak up any difference.

If not Japan, the Fed will need to ramp up QE, not reduce it to maintain status quo.  The high costs more exponentially everyday.

It is unfathomable to me that the Fed will be allowed to let the bond market rise, in an election year, with the deflationary forces of healthcare taxes, and higher energy costs, and if no action higher interest costs.

All I want for Christmas is ..........Gold

I made my list and sent it to Santa, and judging by the action this week we may get a gold rally into December gold delivery month expiration.  My RSI signal fired, it broke its down channel line, and now awaiting my stochastic signal to fire.

From a macro perspective, if investors think taper, and if so, that means unwinding of positions, which is gold positive. The charts are clear that the SPY move and the gold move have been perfect mirrors.

For perspective, I am looking at a 2-3% move for this cycle, with the next cycle in the new year to be much stronger.

In other news, UNG looks like it hit strong resistance, oil is in a weird spot.  I can make the case for a mover in either direction,  URA broke out, volatility should pick up this week, and month, and cooper looks flat.

Hope you had a great turkey day.

Sornette or Bayonet

Some weeks back I reposted work by Sornette regarding the fractal expression of a bubble.  Apparently Fed economists can't see them but mathematicians, and just about everyone else can.  This market is following this expression to a tee.  Their work looked at two possibilities, 1850 by mid November or 2200 by mid January.

There is a case for both, and it just depends on the powers driving this market are hoping for. The taper drumbeat, deflation breaking out, political animosity, employment stalling, may give these investors an incentive to try to get what they can, as fast as they can.  But Friday Vix has nearly hit multi-year support/lows, the dollar failed to breakout, oil nearly broke out, natural gas is breaking out, and SPY crashed the BB bands to the high side.  Next week is a slow week, so not sure what if anything will happen.

But the following weeks get very interesting.  My view is with the lying and uproar over ObamaCare, and the move by Reid to end filibusters, the next budget meetings are not going to be fun.  If the Republicans grow a pair, and can actually articulate what they believe, this battle and 2014 is going to be a rocky year politically. Naming Christie the President of the Republican Governors Association is a tell that the GOP wants to win, and push forward someone who can turn a phrase and blunt rhetoric.

I think we squeeze higher the next few days and and December is a disaster.  High beta is already faltering, and banks are extremely stretched over their 200 MA, some of them are 40% over.  For me I am long oil, long vix, long gold, and long miners.  Enjoy the charts and turkey Day.

PS, the Iranian deal maybe short term positive for the market and negative for oil.

I Am in Awe of the Fed

Wow, the train rolls on.  Based on the now widely known correlation between the Feds balance sheet and the broad market, the slope suggests a 1/2% rise in the market every week until the market decides that amount of stimulus the Fed will inject changes.

Based on the Yellen's testimony we can deduce with some degree of confidence that December is off the table, and seeing the deflation taking hold in Europe, and always in Japan, we can expect the 85 Billion is the low number for at least the next six months.

That now moves my number over 2000 for SPY in the next six months with at least a 5% correction to reset the channel and to re energize the VIX to allow vol selling to drive the low volume pumps.  The obvious catalyst is the budget showdown in mid January.  The Republicans are now in a much stronger position now that Obamacare is showing the American people what it really does, and most don't like it.  so I expect some incredible end of the world rhetoric that will drive Vix and push on the market.

I think this should manifest itself no later than the second week of December, and we will see it in XIV.  XIV is optimizing at thirty days in the future and any weakness will tell us that people are starting to protect themselve from this fight.  also by that time the Vix will be at all time lows again, meaning no more blood in that rock to short it.

In the meantime, we are coming up on Thanksgiving week which is normally bullish, and the commodities are resisting going down, so we may have a three week commodity buy area, and I have buys on JO, UGAZ, precious metals, and miners.  I am also watching oil as we had a sharp reversal on Thursday.  Below are my charts and further explanations.  Enjoy.

Call me Sybil

Last week went pretty much as I expected except Thursday was pushed further down than I thought, and Friday's surge has me rethinking next week.  It could still be a volatility play caused by the market makers trying to settle their books after a one way move higher last month, or the ECB move can be interpreted as a currency war initiation vs a move to stave off deflation.  The strength in miners, materials, drillers, and banks has me thinking maybe it is the former.

A strong dollar and higher commodity costs are good for the above sectors, and these input costs punishes the emerging markets which is good for EDZ (Which I bought last week).  Now waiting to see if gold and silver signal if there is more to this move from an inflation standpoint

I am am very profitably out of all but one (TQQQ) of my triple long puts, thanks to the Thursday, and Friday morning weakness, and I am still scaling in and out of NUGT (still underwater).  The reversal in NUGT, and the juniors surprised and heartened me.  I hold PPP and NUGT, and am going to watch ANV, SLW, and AG next week if this move looks promising, and my signal flash buy.

What else looks good is POT, KOG, and SGY.  Let's see what Monday brings

Calm Before The Storm

Two weeks ago I posted on do we blow up or off. We got a little pop and then some selling, but now the market is digesting what is next, and judging from the Fed's comments and the bond and commodity markets it doesn't look promising.

But knowing the market, I think they will try to push the broad market up to test the Fed week highs before succumbing to the market makers during OPEX week.  Looking at the chart below, the triples have been embedded, but are now cracking, and the the broad market is finally showing signs of fatigue.  I am holding TQQQ puts, SDS, and TWM.

It also appears that the volatility index is resisting falling further, but no one is bidding up protection in a meaningful way yet.  A calm Vix means we may still get UVXY puts and XIV to continue to work for us. Still holding UVXY puts, and closed my XIV Friday, but will buy back on my signal.

The metals and miners have whip sawed a bit, but if the RSI moves back into the upper channel, I think we move higher in both next week.  I am building a position in NUGT, and will scale in and out as necessary to achieve my 10% gain in invested capital by the end of November.

Energy; had my best trades shorting oil, and I closed my UCO puts for now.  Still holding GASL November puts. OIH and UGAZ are telling me this party in natural gas is over for a bit, and longer term energy looks like it is in trouble (oil and nat gas).

Blow Off or Blow Up

Ok, we had our relief rally and we had our overbought volatility condition satisfied on the fake debt/shutdown crisis being averted.  Now what?  We did not get the sell the news I expected, maybe waiting for GOOG to jump $1,000 or APPL's earnings this week, but we are close.  Close enough for me to start taking shots short, especially the Russell.  I went short TQQQ, and recommended a stop, well it blew through that stop, but I personally held on.  I am holding the November 85's.  In two weeks I will roll to December.  Remember the CME and IBB are raising margins, and some news will emerge to justify a nice and strong sell off.  These ultras melt when that happens, we just need to be patient.  I am also short oil through UCO puts (November 33's), and it is weak, looks like the next level of support is coming out of it.  Near term target is 98, but I am expecting a round trip back to $91 by the time it is said and done.  This puts UCO in the mid to high 20's.

I also shorted GASL, as I think it is ahead of itself in the short run,  and seasonally entering a weak period.

I will hedge my positions if need be with crude mini's, NG mini's and ES mini's futures or UVXY puts, or sold calls (weekly).

Also, I am in the process of upgrading my trading signal service to start offering three automated trade bots (ES mini, Crude Mini, and XIV) via a 24/5 Twitter alert, and also giving direct access via Go To Meeting to my charting programs, ask me a question live, and my standard trade signals display as they fire off, both buy and sell signals from my 45 stock focus list. I have been manually trading the future signals to great success, and my programmer back tested it running continuously, and the results have been astoundingly good. We are in the process of gauging interest, writing the programs and infrastructure to deliver it, finalizing our investment, and determining a price.  If interested in learning more send me an email at info@realtimetradingsignals.com.


Good trading everyone.

The Cow Has Been Milked

Last week played out nearly to a tee for me.  Perfection would have been the rally coming one day earlier.  I knew this because volatility levels told me so.  As I wrote last week, we are in for a four to six week period of higher volatility, per my weekly trade signals, but we needed to relieve an expected, extremely overbought level first. A 20% drop did the trick.  Vol may drift a little lower as the last of the wrong way bets are unwound, but then expect a strong move higher in volatility.

Bob, how can you possibly know this?  I have help.  They are IBB and CME.  We are now getting nearly daily announcements of margin increases, and these increases are coming because margin levels are at historically high levels and this last bout of volatility forced them to reevaluate value at risk, ergo margin increases to match expected higher levels of volatility.

Just like Fed rate moves, and eating potato chips, you don't get one or a few.  They keep coming, and they start to form their own weather.  Higher margins cause higher selling, which causes higher desire for protection, which causes higher volatility, which causes, ok you get the picture.

We are also near the point of a singularity called the Sornette bubble.  It is a fractal based calculation that measures the point of exhaustion in a bubble.  That chart (shown below, reproduced from Dr. Hussman's newsletter in September) shows a blowoff by Mid November at about 1850 on the SPY.  Ironically, I calculated the same number six months ago (ad posted on my blog) by extrapolating out the correlation between the Fed asset growth level one year forward  with SPY price growth.  We are also reaching a singularity of of money velocity and bank reserves.  QE has the effect of driving velocity toward zero.  That obviously can't be allowed to happen, as the economy will collapse.

So, if you are a trader continue to play your small ball and ride the waves.  If you are a Momo chaser, take a vacation, you are being targeted, and if you are an investor thank God for this latest melt up and get out for awhile.

For me, I had a fantastic week shorting gold and volatility, and am now pretty lite.  For next week, I am short gold, crude, emerging markets and banks (all November OTM puts) and will re short with TQQQ November puts next week.  Have a great trading week.

I offer a trading signal service that is doing quite well.  WWW.realtimetradingsignals.com.  I also give out free trade ideas during the week.  Just click the follow me area top right and sign up on Twitter.

Give me a V

Volatility selling over the past four years have been extremely profitable, as the banks, the Fed and the hedge funds sell it to drive prices of risk assets higher.  I have a very good friend who is bank auditor, and over dinner we discussed how having  low and falling volatility allows the banks to justify to him why their value at risk is what it is (justify higher risk).  This works the same way in the stock market, when volatility is sold, algos recalculate the risk equation, and they buy. But volatility can go up too, and usually 3-4 time a year we get a spike, and once a year it is a super spike.  I think the latter is at hand.

Looking at my charts, the VIX-X, relative strength on the weekly made a higher low, as did price.  This is important as usually VIX-X trades in a range, and resets the RSI at a oversold level for the next push higher. This signals for me 4-6 weeks of higher volatility.

The daily charts tell me though, we may get a short rally in the stock market, and some more selling in volatility, but once that plays out or the signal fails, I will be an aggressive buyer of volatility.

Some Charts

I thought this week I'd get a little tactical and put up three areas where my signal flashed an intermediate sell signal.  For me I will choose the route of buying puts on the ultra long option in these sectors.  Note, it is possible that we can get strength in these for a week or two yet, but my signal is very reliable 60 days out.

I leaned a little long going into the weekend as I think the Republicans main event is the debt ceiling, we get a compromise or punt, get a relief rally, and then the main event.  This CR issue is a sideshow to show seriousness.  What is amazing to me is how the Republicans constantly maneuver themselves into a corner, take a strong hand and turn it into a loser. A lot of people are going to lose a lot of money very quickly and it will be tied to Boehner.

My signals are showing that the dollar is about to turn sharply higher, therefore, energy, high beta, and emerging markets are most at risk, and that is where I am focussing my trades.  I am also still short FAS, GLD,  and NUGT with puts, and with a DUST position.  I am long with XIV, and still have a UCO trade on that I will close this week.  I am giving XIV another $.50 to see if any compromise causes vol selling.  Any further weakness in XIV on the weekly puts us in a 4-6 week high volatility period.  That makes sense based on the other chart patterns I see.

Enjoy.

Recognition Event

I don't think we can underestimate the news from the Fed on Wednesday.  Chairman Bernanke has not been in the business of faking out investors, unless they are very scared.  They ought to be scared.  Even though we are fed a daily dose of everything is getting better by the Ministry of Truth (Main Stream Media) to keep everyone in the game, the Fed knows the real truth, and the market simply cannot absorb higher interest rates, and the market cannot maintain its rise without the banks leveraging in Bernanke bucks.  It is as simple as that.

So that leaves us with no taper, ever, until energy and food prices absolutely require the end to the Fed. Until then we will get no taper announcements, with constant noise about potential tapers at the next meeting to keep the speculators from getting too far ahead.

For us trading will get fun again.  The days of the numbingly boring overnight ramp and all day flat line, or overnight smackdown in metals and miners are over.  Swing trading will be back in vogue.

A note on the Wednesday ramp and Friday takedown.  I believe it was due to the market makers and large speculators being on the wrong side of the Fed two days before OPEX closing, and GDX rebalancing.  We are going to see what early next week brings to get a better sense

My daily buy signals on GLD, UGL, SLV, and AGQ are all still intact.  The miners signal flipped short as did FAS and SPY, and I need to see if the rebalancing is the reason, but I sold and shorted anyway.  I had a great week as I went long with leverage going into the Fed, and I scaled out of my leverage on Wednesday and Thursday, and closed my core miners on Friday. There is a tendency for traders to hold after big gains in the hope of another 2011 ramp, especially those holding 2-3X positions.  The days of the robots and overnight trading makes it difficult to be a buy and holder.  You can still profitably participate in any trend scaling in and out

I humbly offer what I do.

When I get a buy signal I buy 1/2 of the total amount I will buy, and will buy on on every down day and sell on every up day until I am fully positioned. The amount I buy and sell is dependent on the percentage of the daily move.  For leveraged ETF's I am buying and selling 10% for every 1%, for non leverage I am 25% for every 1%.  I close my position completely when my sell signal hits.  I will hold 6-10 positions max, with XIV being my largest when fully invested.  Other than XIV, no other position is greater than 15% of my portfolio.  I will buy long or short positions.

My signals are based on a proprietary signal looking at extreme moves and reversals in momentum on the daily, and I am usually in trades using this method 7-30 trading days.  I am consistently profitable as I keep working my basis down, and harvesting profits.

I like this approach better than moving stops or all in or all out methods.  I have found that just moving stops up keeps traders from re-entering if it was just a stop run, and missing a bigger move higher and I hate the big overnight reversal and gap downs.  I rather be buying into those gap downs with money I pocketed the day before then talking to myself all day about why I did not sell.

As most of you know I offer a buy and sell signal service, and now I am upgrading the service and am in the process of automating this in a bot, if anyone is interested in learning more email meat support@realtimetradingsignals.com

I also am automating my ES mini and Crude mini futures signals and if there is enough interest in receiving an automated buy and sell price signal via text let me know. It is based on a hourly signal so you are not trading like a bandit. The signal is currently producing pretty extraordinary net results, and I am happy to share results on an individual basis for those truly interested.  I will limit how many people I will offer this signal to.

Enjoy the week.

Calling Miners up from the Minor League

Just when we all start enjoying the move higher in the miners, we get a pretty hard selloff.  But I want to put it into perspective.  Nearly all of the miners I follow have recharged their relative strength on the daily, and are sporting a higher low and a higher high.  Everyone needs to remember this is not 2011 all over again. Oversold and overbought rules are going to apply.

When NUGT was trading in the single digits I traded it pretty aggressively, but when they split it 1 for 10, it was such a juicy target for the bears that I stayed away; and we had oil rising due to the fake war narrative we were being fed, so that also puts pressure on the space.

Now that news is behind us, the Fed in front of us, focus is back on liquidity, and on Friday I had across the board buy signals on my miners, smart money positioning.  I am long SLW, AG, and PPP, plus a GLD 135 Sept week 4 long position (closed the 145 sold leg on the down move)  Monday and Tuesday I will get to full positions on all three (I have been scaling in and out to work my average price down).  My if I am wrong sell stop will be Thursday's low, after the Fed news.

On other news, I see silver and gold moving higher, FAS, SPY, and oil moving lower after the announcement and am and will be positioned accordingly. In FAS puts, SCO shares, and moving up a conditional ever day on SPY for a put spread.

For those buying, selling, and in the mortgage business, I see rates have topped here for the foreseeable future.


Enjoy the charts.

Syriana Screwtape(r) letters

What a mess.  Our Government and the Fed are now juggling dynamite. Syria and the taper news has this market on edge. Metals are holding up, utilities and bonds are bottoming, and the hot money is hiding out in oil.

Personally I'd be shocked if we tapered and we went to war with Syria. All downside and limited upside. That is not a bet politicians make.  If I am right we will  get our last hurrah with SPY, and all of the commodities move higher except for oil.  But I am a little ahead of myself.  At the moment my portfolio is pretty light with only oil servicing companies (BHI) and my core miners, (AG, PPP, SLW, and ANV).  I have a MNKD lottery position, as well.

For those who follow my NUGT calls, we are building that position back up.  For the next ten days I will dabble with some option trades if my prices are hit, and will be watching HOV and DRN for potential swing positions.  I will share those buys with my paid subscribers.

Also, if you are interested on Tuesday afternoon I am doing a free webinar to just talk charts, the macro environment, trading, or whatever is on your mind.  It is free, and these are usually pretty fun.

http://www.realtimetradingsignals.com/free_webinar_registration.html

Enjoy some charts and have a great week.

Cross Currents

I am officially back from vacation, and ready to go into a sure to be interesting fall season.  The Syria news and the taper news has this market on tenterhooks.  In some way I believe they are related.  For the past eight months our deficit has been falling, and the Fed has probably bought all of the paper they dare to without disrupting the the bond/currency markets.  The Federal spending machine is getting anxious as new spending is what is required to secure new votes and voters.  Sequestration is strangling all of that.

What the market needs now is fresh capital and velocity.  Nothing like a little war and some govt spending to get the animal juices flowing, and the sequester set aside.  What is funny, ironic, and sad, is people predicted this six months ago, to the month.  We have gotten that transparent, and desperate.  The Administration, ours and the British did not expect the backlash against this war, and now confusion reigns.  I think they figure out a way to intervene, and I fear an unexpected reprisal.  In the meantime this is a very news driven market, and that is very dangerous, especially in September and October.

I am staying very light and relatively hedged.  I am long oil, short SPY, and long miners.  I am counting on no taper to occur, ever.  This will drive energy higher, and cause the equity markets to falter.  Miners will continue to move higher as a reversion to the mean trade.  I will continue to look for opportunities to buy XIV for either a day or a swing trade, and will scale in and out of current positions to improve my cost basis as I await the bigger moves I expect this fall.

My published portfolio 60% invested, 70/30 long/short, with an annualized gain of nearly 20% this year (all transaction costs included).  My individual picks are 141.8% on 268 picks, (no transaction costs included and no size of trades suggested).  I trade and offer for a basket of 50 focus stocks I follow, using my buy / sell trade signals.  Find out more at  http://www.realtimetradingsignals.com/

Good trading this week.

A lot To Say Today

The markets have finally woke up, especially the commodity sector which I specialize in trading.  It has been a long winter.  Exciting times are once again upon us.

Before I get there,I want to talk about some market, professional, and personal milestones that we crossed in August.

Personally; I trade a stock called XIV the most of all of the stocks I trade.  Why?  Because it is designed to go up. When the market is moving higher, you can simply go with the flow, buy oversold and sell overbought on the 60 or the daily.  When the market is down, like last Thursday and Friday, you can catch very profitable one or two day moves off of extreme oversold settings.  In this case 3% in 24 hours, in a down market!

I spent a lot of time looking for a high probability of profit, simple indicator(s), to trigger a trade.  I found it, and I decided to share it with everybody in a eBook I wrote for Amazon.  They have accepted and published it, and the reviews have been very good so far.  We hit number seven on the stock and investing bestseller list in its first week, and I priced it reasonable for all to afford and enjoy.  It is called Stock Volatility Money Machine, by Bob Kudla, on Amazon.http://www.amazon.com/Stock-Volatility-Money-Machine-ebook/product-reviews/B00EC4MF0S/ref=cm_cr_pr_top_sort_recent?ie=UTF8&showViewpoints=0&sortBy=bySubmissionDateDescending

Professionally;  I have had my trading signal service for three years now.  We have provided over 500 signals that average over 100% annualized, average time in trade 7 days, and as part of a portfolio of equal sized trades, with trade costs factored in, over 30% returns in 2011 and 2012.  My expectations are we will meet or exceed that in 2013.  These are very good returns considering most of my trades are in the commodity space.

Based on my paying subscribers feedback, I now list and vary my trade size, average costs and how I buy and sell to maximize my profits when riding a trend, especially triple leveraged ETF's. This more closely matches my own portfolio.  The cost of my service ranges from $20-$40 a month, month to month. It is a great value. www.realtimetradingsignals.com is the website.

I also started posting some trades daily for free, that hit my buy or short screen, that are not in my focus list, but might be of interest to you.  These are swing trades primarily (5-7 day trades)  www.realtimetradingsignals.blogspot.com

Now for the market.  The sea change I have been talking about, has occurred, and my view is the money flow is moving to hard assets from financial assets, even though in my opinion there is no economic growth. This is a currency problem.  Look at when SPY started sputtering, and when gold and oil started moving higher; July 1st.  That is when the YEN collapse started reversing in on itself.  The Yen is even more shorted than the dollar, and as this trade unwinds, it will move higher than the dollar.  Traders were shorting gold, miner, commodities, and buying SPY, and high beta.  This is all being reversed.

In addition, and much more toxic is the 10 year is moving much higher, this adds fuel to the fire as funds bailout of losses in fixed incomes, look at financial assets struggling, see commodities moving higher, and jump in.  None of this makes economical sense, but relative value currency sense.  If our dollar continues to weaken, all of these moves will accelerate until food and oil prices crush the economy.

Tactically, next week can be a bit of a counter trend move.  Gold, silver, miners, oil and such are all hitting resistance zones of fib/trend/MA lines. Don't short into these retracements.  Use them to add to positions. SPY looks like the 50 may hold again, and I expect they will try to chase out weak shorts.  We will short the failure of this counter trend with TZA and EDZ.

Natural Gas looks like a bottom is in, and I am very close to buy signals on GASL and CHK.  I am also watching BHI for a trendline breakout, and DDD for a high beta long trade if we move sharply higher.

Please ask any question or provide any feedback in the comments area. Enjoy the charts.